🚨 $SPCX: One of the Most Unique Nasdaq-100 Additions Ever for Today? Here’s what the market is watching: 🔹 Public Float: 3.7% (281M shares out of 7.57B outstanding) 🔒 Most insiders, employees & pre-IPO investors remain under lock-up until at least Aug. 11, limiting additional supply. 💰 Nasdaq-100 index funds are expected to buy ~$4.3B worth of shares. 📉 The stock has already retraced from $225 to around $165, just ahead of one of the largest scheduled passive buying events. Compare the public float of recent Nasdaq-100 additions: • SPCX: 3.7% • ARM: ~10% • PLTR: ~55–60% • ABNB: ~75–80% • MSTR: ~85% • APP: ~90% • AXON: ~90% • MDB: ~95% ⚠️ No recent Nasdaq-100 addition entered the index with a public float anywhere close to SPCX’s 3.7%. 👀 Watch the closing auction on July 6. That’s when many index funds typically execute their rebalance trades. Whether you’re an institution or a retail investor, this is one of the most unusual supply vs. demand setups seen in a mega-cap stock. Volatility could be elevated. Manage your risk accordingly. $SPCX $QQQ $NDX #Nasdaq100 #SpaceX #IndexRebalance #Stocks #Investing

Dow Jones Industrial Average, Results for the First half. The DJIA had a good H1 at plus 10.06% but it was eclipsed by NDX and the S&P 500. Watch it as it unfolded. youtube.com/watch?v=JzSyIzK7…

$NDX and similar path for $SPX. Following on from prior post - we could get an 8-10% move higher from current prices, but the structure suggests to me that some of the imbalance in the chart will be corrected (a revisit to the 2026 opening price range 24-25k). $NQ $QQQ

Your brain always operates in safety and survival mode There's nothing you can do to change it, it's just the way it is wired However you can be aware of how it works and you can control its reactions and its responses $SPY $SPX $DIA $RUT $NDX $QQQ $AVGO $NVDA $DELL $INTC $SOX

U.S. stocks are set to open higher Monday (SPX futures 0.4%, NDX futures 1.0%) as tech rebounds ahead of key earnings tests from Samsung and SK Hynix on the continuing AI trade viability. $TSLA recovering modestly pre-mkt after last week's delivery beat (480K vs 406K est) but still facing pressure from surging competition in unsupervised autonomy. Brent crude down ~1% to $71/bbl with Hormuz flows stabilizing post-Iran tensions. S&P 2026 EPS estimates now at $342 ( 23% YoY), implying ~21.9x P/E and a solid 4.6% earnings yield in line with 10yr Treasuries. I remain cautious on $TSLA given likely commoditization of autonomy in the next 12-24 months and stretched valuation relative to forward growth (high PEG). Focus remains on AI infrastructure winners and valuation discipline.

$BTC slips below $62K as $DXY reclaims 101 Meanwhile, $NDX futures 1.19% $SPX futures 0.44%. Stocks bid higher, crypto under pressure. 📈

TWI Morning Report ☕ SPX Gameplan 📈 7535 → 7550 🛡️ 7520 pivot 📉 7505 → 7475 The Roadmap: TWI Chop Positioning: Light positive gamma, chop range with a magnet at 7520 Playbook: fade the edges Focus $AMD intraday setups or calls above 546 Gapping up on positive news and an upgrade. This is coming after a big sell and reset within the trade last week. First bounce start of the week makes us lean toward patience around the open to see how dips respond first. Watch for 546 to reclaim for longs or set up a front side rejection. Watchlist $AAPL above 310 $NFLX above 78.50 $GOOGL above 365 $META above 600/603 $MSFT above 393 $TSLA below 388 $CRWD above 200 $PANW above 358 $TTWO above 255 $LLY above 1240 $UNH above 430 Macro Summary Tech leading the return from the July 4 weekend. NDX futures 1.2%, SMH 2.4% premarket, SPX 0.4%. The Warsh Fed digest continues after Thursday's stagflation-tinted NFP miss ( 57K vs 114K, participation drop). Calendar is quiet Mon and Tue. FOMC Minutes from Warsh's first meeting release 2pm Wednesday, the single catalyst that matters this week. Trade the coil until it breaks.

Does the semiconductor complex sell off become a slaughter? Loss of 21ema for many parabolics but relatively “meh” for big boys like $NVDA with its massive #1 weighting in NDX. This is my focus: how XYZ affect the Spazdaq 100 $NDX and MOST INTERESTING is how much chucking ‘da chips is seen as beneficial to the battered hyperscalers and their CAPEX narratives. Should the semis selling intensify, will the other big kids of $NDX continue to offer stability to the index with upside “value” investing while the semis sell off? Embrace the maths!!! x.com/i/trending/20740988283…

ROTATION FLASH CHIPS TO HYPERSCALERS Morgan Stanley's Wilson: US stocks will struggle at new highs Quant funds worst run since 2023 as momentum slides BTC $61,727 -1.55% NDX $29,692 Next catalyst: ISM Services PMI 2PM ET Cons 54, prior 54

NDX vol has been serially underpriced since April as stocks surged higher. Usually these things happen during sharp market declines. This chart compares IV vs forward 21 day realized vol.

👇8 Bad News(7 Banks Just Downgraded $SPX $NDX Fri👇EXCESS Now GETTING SMARTer Banks into REDUCING exposure that's why $SPY Topped Out in June UNTIL AFTER the MidTerms Knowing ENTIRE World Hates #Trump World WILL SHORT Sell U.S. @CNBC @business @WSJ @FT @zerohedge $QQQ $NVDA $VIX

Your brain is designed to get off you of troubles and protect you from life threats When it tells you to not buy you know it's a Bottom When it tells you to not sell you know it's a Top $SPY $SPX $DIA $RUT $NDX $QQQ $AVGO $CSCO $DELL $INTC $NVDA $MU $SMH $SOX $SOXX $TSLA

7.6.26 GEOPOLITICS, ENERGY & TRADE - OPEC & Strait of Hormuz: Seven OPEC nations, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to roll back curbs and add 188,000 bpd in August. Major Persian Gulf producers are rapidly ramping output, with tanker traffic out of Hormuz entering a "new normal" of 30 to 60 vessels a day—enough to ease global supply pressures and push WTI lower. - SPR Replenishment: Rebuilding the Strategic Petroleum Reserve to pre-war levels will take 15 to 18 months even at an optimistic buying rate of 200,000 barrels a day. - USMCA Sunset: The Trump administration is expected to formally declare on Wednesday that it will not extend the USMCA, triggering a sunset clause that starts a decade-long clock to wind down the North American free trade zone. - Agricultural Heat Wave: US soybean and corn futures surged over 3% as a scorching "heat dome" hit major growing regions right as corn enters its vulnerable pollination stage. Heat waves have also reportedly damaged a third of the French corn crop. - NATO Summit: President Trump meets with Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at Wednesday's NATO summit in Turkey, an event charged with tensions over European defense spending and the Iran war. MACROECONOMICS, RATES & FX - FOMC Minutes & Services Data: Wednesday's release of the June FOMC minutes (Chair Kevin Warsh's debut) will be scrutinized for hawkish rate trajectories, as futures imply a 64% chance of a September rate hike. Today, markets focus on the ISM Services index following a dominant services job print from ADP. - Intervention Watch (Yen): The options market is sending a bearish signal on the yen, with one-year sentiment favoring the dollar for the first time in three years. Goldman Sachs revised its USD/JPY forecast up to 165, noting Japanese authorities are staying on the sidelines. - South Korean Pension Flows: National Pension Service Chairman Kim Sung-joo dismissed fears of a 74 trillion won domestic equity "selling bomb," stating the chance of a massive market-disrupting selloff is "zero" even as the fund's rebalancing waiver expires. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE, SEMIS & TECH - Samsung Q2 & Memory Hikes: Samsung reports its Q2 update tonight, with analysts expecting an 18-fold profit surge (barring outsized strike-averting employee bonus provisions). The company is aggressively pushing to hike Q3 DRAM and LPDDR average selling prices by 20%. - SK Hynix Mega-Listing: SK Hynix launched its $28.1 billion U.S. share sale roadshow. Final pricing is set for Thursday, with the ADRs debuting Friday in what will be the second-largest share sale in history behind SpaceX. It is expected to join the SOX index, paving the way for massive passive inflows. - SpaceX NDX Inclusion: SpaceX (SPCX) will be added to the Nasdaq 100 after today's close, which JPMorgan estimates will draw $4.3 billion in passive inflows. The underwriter quiet period also expires tomorrow, unleashing fresh analyst coverage. - Nvidia (NVDA) Delay: Asian tech stocks slumped after research firm SemiAnalysis reported that Nvidia's next-generation Kyber NVL144 AI server rack system is delayed by more than a year due to printed circuit board manufacturing setbacks. - Sun Valley Summit: The 2026 Allen & Co. conference begins Tuesday in Idaho, with top AI executives including OpenAI's Sam Altman and Anthropic's Dario Amodei on the guest list. - Hedge Fund Selling & Rotation: Short selling drove a third straight week of net equity sales by global hedge funds. Morgan Stanley warns momentum is fading in semiconductor stocks as investors rotate toward laggards and hyperscalers. DOMESTIC POLITICS & POLICY - Progressive Primary Upsets: Democratic socialists scored major upsets in Colorado, including Melat Kiros unseating 29-year incumbent Rep. Diana DeGette. Combined with recent wins in NY and Maine, progressive candidates are successfully disrupting the establishment status quo. - Student Loan Sticker Shock: New Department of Education repayment plans went into effect on July 1, featuring stricter borrowing caps for graduate students and parents. Millions of borrowers face massive sticker shock as they transition into new plans this summer. CALENDAR - Mon: US ISM Services, S&P Global US Services PMI. BoC Business Outlook. Fed's Waller speaks in Rome. SpaceX added to Nasdaq 100 (after close). - Tue: 2026 Sun Valley Conference kicks off. Japan 30Y Bond Auction, Labor Cash Earnings. US Trade Balance, JOLTS Job Openings. API Oil Data. - Wed: USMCA non-extension formal declaration. FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET). US MBA Mortgages, Wholesale Inventories. DOE Oil Inventories. 10-Year Note Auction. Trump meets Zelenskyy at NATO summit (Turkey). - Thu: China CPI/PPI. US Weekly Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales. Fed's Williams, Fed's Logan speak. SK Hynix final IPO pricing. - Fri: SK Hynix begins US trading. Japan PPI. German CPI. Canadian Employment. CFTC COT, Fed H8 Report.

$NDX is coiling inside a tight 1H symmetrical triangle. Bull trigger: Break and hold above 29,800 Upside targets: 30,000 then 30,200 Bear trigger: Lose 29,550 support Downside targets: 29,400 then 29,100 Expect volatility expansion near the apex No chase until confirmation.

I don’t have much experience with straddles or condors. Nor do it with NDX. I traded NDX last year but moved to SPX cause of prices

#nasdaq #ndx #nq aktuell H4 $nq $ndx $nasdaq

If you follow the CNBC Fear & Greed Index to conduct Sentiment Analysis you didn't understand absolutely anything $AVGO $CSCO $DELL $INTC $NVDA $MU $SMH $TSLA $SPCX $SOX $SOXX $SPY $SPX $DIA $RUT $NDX $QQQ

the fiat crowd is cheering a 1% tech bounce like the bleeding actually stopped. Look at the gap on the chart. Nasdaq sitting at 121.2 against the S&P at 113.2. Retail genuinely thinks this rotation is just a normal pullback. Meanwhile the momentum plumbing is actively blowing up. Goldmans high beta basket puked 18% of its value in exactly 48 hours. That puts the most crowded trade on earth on track for its second worst month in 15 years. You cant outrun an 18 percent collapse with a morning bounce. The entire $NDX is now sweating over a Samsung preliminary earnings print tonight. Imagine needing a foreign semiconductor press release to keep your net worth intact. Spot gold ticks down fractionally today and the tech bulls are taking victory laps. Let them. My physical stack doesnt need an AI narrative to exist. #Gold #XAUUSD

You must follow your brain to conduct Sentiment Analysis as human brain is wired in the same manner for everybody, what you are feeling is the exact same thing all other market participants are feeling $SPY $SPX $DIA $RUT $NDX $QQQ $AVGO $CSCO $DELL $INTC $NVDA $MU $SOX $SOXX

Buy fear, sell greed always works Asset prices trend, it's true During downtrends your brain becomes fearful on lower lows and greedy on lower highs, the opposite is true for uptrends $SPY $SPX $NDX $QQQ $RUT $DIA $AVGO $CSCO $DELL $NVDA $MU $TSLA $SPCX $SMH $SOX $SOXX