I sat down with PhD economist Chris Martenson on the oil market numbers that genuinely don't add up. 39 ships through Hormuz in 24 hours, half what the Trump administration is publicly claiming, a 3rd of pre-war traffic. Yet crude sits near pre-war lows. Meanwhile money managers are the most bearish on oil they've been in 15 years (not slightly bearish, the most bearish on record) at the exact moment physical supply is the tightest it's been all year. Martenson's 2 explanations: either some of the smartest people in finance have simply lost the thread, or someone with deep pockets is running a standing sell order timed to peace deal headlines, letting momentum algorithms pile on and crater the price on cue regardless of what's happening at the strait. The part that should worry people more than the price: U.S. oil product demand is up 2.9% year over year while the Strategic Petroleum Reserve and commercial stockpiles sit at multi-decade lows for this time of year. The concern isn't that oil is expensive right now. It's that if the ceasefire cracks again, America hits a real shortage with nothing left in the reserve to cushion it (having spent the intervening weeks burning through what remained to maintain the illusion of cheap oil.) Is this algorithmic noise or engineered price suppression while the physical reserves quietly run dry? @chrismartenson

Erika Kirk & Charlie Kirk’s parents set to face the accused assassin Tyler Robinson in court TODAY. Gruesome evidence drops at his preliminary hearing in Utah, with graphic videos of the public assassination, autopsy photos, and a confession from his trans lover. The family warned that they might need to leave the room during the worst parts. With the death penalty on table, this is going to be intense. All eyes will be on this one. Source: NY Post / Writer: Jamie 3763

🇮🇱🇨🇾 Netanyahu just wrongly called Cyprus a "NATO country." It's not clear what went wrong with a quick fact-check, but let's hope he implements foreign policy more conscientiously than he talks about it. Writer: Mhedi

🇲🇽 A Mexican fan went through every stage of grief in about 10 seconds after watching his team come painfully close, only to fall short. He's going to need a minute. Writer: Julie

🇮🇷 Al Jazeera says this is the largest funeral procession in human history, with more than 10 million people estimated to have shown up in Tehran to pay respects to the late Supreme Leader. Iranian state media estimates that more than 20 million people will participate in the ceremonies that will take place over multiple days in Iran and Iraq. The second biggest funeral procession in history occurred in 1989 in Tehran over the death of Iran's first Supreme Leader Ruhollah Khomeini. If there's one thing Iranians can do well, it's organizing an unforgettable funeral. Source: Al Jazeera, Middle_East_Observer, Writer: Mhedi

🇺🇸🇹🇷 Trump told NATO allies in Turkey that America has dropped nearly $1 TRILLION on the alliance. He warned: No more free rides, or leave NATO. “They were NOT THERE for us.” Writer: Samuel

🇹🇷 NATO chief Mark Rutte has arrived in Ankara for the NATO Summit. Ukraine's air defense is at the top of the agenda, and everyone's watching for the Trump-Zelensky meeting on the sidelines. Writer: Julie

🚨🇮🇷 CHECK OUT this aerial view of Enghelab Square and the full 5km stretch to Azadi Square in Tehran, completely packed with mourners in black & red for Khamenei's funeral procession. The vehicle carrying the martyrs is reportedly stuck in the density. Organizers are calling this the biggest funeral in Iran's history. That’s an insane amount of people. It shows that support for the regime was wider than originally estimated. Writer: Jamie x.com/AryJeayBackup/status/2…

🇮🇱🇱🇧 Netanyahu says he wants peace with Lebanon to move forward. "We haven't yet set a date for the visit, but I'd like to see the peace with Lebanon advance just as we advance together." Big on peace ahead of his sit-down with Trump, light on specifics. Writer: Julie x.com/foxandfriends/status/2…

🇮🇱🇹🇷 Netanyahu takes aim at Turkey: "They finance Hamas, they harbor Hamas. They roll out the red carpet for Hamas. They're in fact supporting the bad guys." All this as world leaders land in Ankara for the NATO summit. Writer: Julie

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Netanyahu was asked why Iran's government is still standing. "Because it has a few hundred thousand goons who kill, murder in broad daylight, and at night they murder their own people." The streets of Tehran this week told a more complicated story. Writer: Julie x.com/clashreport/status/207…

🇮🇱🇺🇸 Netanyahu on his relationship with Trump: "We see eye to eye just about everything, and sometimes, as happens among the best of allies, and we are the best of allies, there can be differences of opinion. We're your model ally." Model ally, give or take a few disagreements he'd rather not list. Writer: Julie x.com/clashreport/status/207…

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Supporters of the late Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei were chanting, "We don't want a deal, we want Trump's head," in the streets of Tehran this morning. Millions have shown up to mourn the fallen leader. In the meantime, Trump administration officials have been working to reach a long-term peace deal with Iran. At this point, I think the only thing loyal Khamenei supporters want is blood. Writer: Jamie x.com/IranIntl_En/status/207…

🇺🇸 The U.S. Commerce Secretary helped get a red card overturned at the World Cup. Balogun, Team USA's striker, was sent off against Bosnia and hit with an automatic one-match ban that would have kept him out of the Belgium game. Then Trump called FIFA president Gianni Infantino directly, and Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick worked the FIFA channels, having already dined with Infantino before the tournament. FIFA reversed it, suspending the ban for a year and clearing Balogun to play. Trump called it a "great injustice" put right. The rest of football is less thrilled. Belgium is appealing, UEFA called the move an unprecedented decision that "crossed a red line," and even former FIFA boss Sepp Blatter warned that "football must never become a playground for political power." Political interference or home-field advantage, depending on which flag you're waving. Source: Politico, NYT, UEFA / Writer: Julie

🚨🇮🇱🇸🇾 The IDF just arrested around 70 radical Israeli activists from the group HaBashan Pioneers who crossed the lines of Israel's buffer zone in Syrian territory and attempted to establish an illegal presence in Syria. You can think of these people as low-level attempted colonizers whose agenda relies on Israel not having the political stomach to stop them or leave them unprotected in territory they attempt to steal. Source: TABZ (telegram), Writer: Mhedi

Former State Department Iran negotiator Alan Eyre sat down with me to give the most unvarnished assessment of where Iranian power actually sits right now. And Mojtaba Khamenei isn't on the list. Eyre calls him a "supreme leader seedling." His father spent decades building loyalty networks before wielding real authority. Mojtaba has had months, and his continued disappearance, no photo, no video, no audio, points to serious facial injuries, not just security caution. Eyre's blunt ranking: if you listed Iran's top 15 power brokers today, Mojtaba doesn't make it. The reported internal tensions, the president threatening to resign, the central bank governor warning of economic collapse... Eyre compares it to Republicans and Democrats clashing in Washington. Politics exist in every government. It doesn't mean the regime is cracking. His sharper argument: the U.S. effectively did regime change by killing Khamenei, and the successor environment forming around Mojtaba is more anti-American, more militaristic, and less risk-averse than what came before. The previous supreme leader reportedly didn't want a nuclear weapon. Nobody's making that bet about the leadership forming now. His forecast: Israel restarts strikes on Iran within the next year, probability above 50%, with or without U.S. backing. U.S. direct involvement in a renewed round, close to zero. Iran's most likely retaliation tool isn't missiles, but Hormuz as a dial, tightened or loosened to signal displeasure without triggering open war, since Iran still needs to repair Gulf relationships. Eyre expects selective charging in the future: full rates for some countries, exemptions for others like China, depending entirely on who's willing to pay for access. Does Mojtaba grow into real power over the next year, or does the IRGC keep him exactly where he is now, a symbol without the network to back it? @AlanEyre1

🇺🇸 After Trump called FIFA's president for a special review, the organization reversed the suspension of key American striker Folarin Balogun despite his red card in the last game, allowing him to join the American squad against Belgium today. This adds to a massive number of controversial decisions in this World Cup that's resulting in more and more people calling it rigged. Notable incidents include the FIFA president's daughter publicly sporting a Morocco jersey, Croatia losing a goal over the ball touching a player's hair, and Paraguay being allowed to get away with all but murder against France. Belgium now joins the outraged, promising to appeal the unusual discretionary decision against it. Writer: Mhedi x.com/FoxNews/status/2074078…

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The southern route through the Strait of Hormuz is open again for all traffic. A new Joint Maritime Information Center advisory says the corridor's been expanded, and ships can move through day or night as long as they keep their AIS on, radars going, and lights on. The threat level is still substantial though, with a mine danger area to watch for and naval forces hailing ships over VHF. Checking in with NCAGS is encouraged but not required. Ships can make the run on their own. Source: @UK_MTO / Writer: Julie

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Fmr U.S. Marine Ken O’Keefe: "If Trump died, many would celebrate, a sign of the state of U.S. leadership. Writer: Samuel

🇷🇺🇺🇸 The Kremlin says Putin and Trump aren't done talking. Spokesman Peskov says their latest call let Russia make its case directly to Trump, and more contacts are coming soon. He also pushed back on claims Trump is wavering on Ukraine: "Any speculation that he changes his viewpoint like a weather vane is unfounded." According to Moscow, Trump is still willing to hear Putin out. Source: TASS / Writer: Julie

🇮🇷🇺🇸🇱🇧 Iran's Speaker Ghalibaf says Iran forced the U.S to have Lebanon written into its MOU. He claims Tehran told the American side that the territorial integrity of regional countries and an end to the war on its allies "must be part of the memorandum, and it was added to the text." He also made clear Iran isn't softening on Washington. "We have no peace with the United States, and we will not recognize Israel." The comments came with Hamas and Hezbollah leaders gathered around him in Tehran for Khamenei's funeral, the axis of resistance under one roof. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Julie