U.S. stocks are set to open higher Monday (SPX futures 0.4%, NDX futures 1.0%) as tech rebounds ahead of key earnings tests from Samsung and SK Hynix on the continuing AI trade viability. $TSLA recovering modestly pre-mkt after last week's delivery beat (480K vs 406K est) but still facing pressure from surging competition in unsupervised autonomy. Brent crude down ~1% to $71/bbl with Hormuz flows stabilizing post-Iran tensions. S&P 2026 EPS estimates now at $342 ( 23% YoY), implying ~21.9x P/E and a solid 4.6% earnings yield in line with 10yr Treasuries. I remain cautious on $TSLA given likely commoditization of autonomy in the next 12-24 months and stretched valuation relative to forward growth (high PEG). Focus remains on AI infrastructure winners and valuation discipline.

US stocks closed mixed yesterday ahead of the Independence Day holiday. The Dow Jones surged 1.14% to a fresh record high at ~52,900, driven by rotation into cyclicals and softer June jobs data (only 57k added vs. expectations of ~110k). S&P 500 was virtually flat at ~7,483, while Nasdaq fell -0.8% on continued pressure in semiconductors (Philly Semi -5.4%). Soft payrolls ease near-term rate hike fears and support a more dovish Fed path, but chip weakness (AI valuation concerns competition) offset broader gains. Apple rose sharply on new iPhone plans; $TSLA dropped despite delivery beat as investors sold the news after recent run-up. We remain constructive on the broader market as earnings growth (2026 S&P EPS ~$340, 22% YoY) and AI tailwinds should drive new highs once volatility subsides. Rotation out of stretched mega-cap tech into value/cyclicals looks healthy. Stay disciplined – buy on weakness where you have an edge.

$TSLA blew away 2Q delivery estimates but shares are down ~7% today as investors had largely anticipated the beat. Consensus was ~406K; actuals came in stronger, driven by 2Q gas price surge boosting EV demand in key markets. This marks the second straight quarter of positive YoY growth after prior declines. However, FSD/autonomy is not what's moving the needle for average consumers—most aren't even aware or focused on it. Sales are still overwhelmingly tied to core EV economics vs. gas prices. We remain cautious longer-term: 2026-30 earnings estimates continue to trend lower amid competition in unsupervised autonomy from players like $GOOG, $AMZN, etc., plus stretched valuation. Price vs. value discipline is key—ignore the crowd, focus on unit growth, pricing, and margins. Broader market: Equities mixed post-H1 rally as focus shifts to Fed signals and macro data. S&P 2026 EPS trajectory supportive, but always develop specific downside scenarios.

U.S. stocks opened July on a cautious note (SPX -0.3%, NDX -0.6%) as investors await Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments today at the ECB forum in Portugal for clues on the rate path amid rising price pressures and a strengthening economy. Brent crude -1% to around $72/bbl, 10yr yields -0.6bp to 4.46%. S&P 2026 EPS estimates have climbed to $342 ( 23% YoY), implying a forward P/E of ~21.8x. $TSLA is likely to beat WS 2Q delivery consensus of ~406K tomorrow morning, with my estimate around 410-420K ( 7-9% YoY). This would mark the second consecutive quarter of positive YoY growth after declines in prior years, helped by surging gas Markets continue brushing aside some macro noise as AI-driven earnings optimism persists. Focus remains on fundamentals: unit growth, pricing power, and margins. Always have a clear thesis and downside scenarios in mind.

🚨BREAKING NEWS: #Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa are finalizing a 4-year, $180 million dollar extension with $102.1 guaranteed sources tell me @JFowlerESPN Deal ties Tua to Miami through the 2028 season. Another massive QB deal in the books.

Receivers are getting ZERO separation! #FinsUp

LFG!!! #FinsUp

Please tell me Brady shook Purdy’s hand after the game! Commercial came on while Purdy was looking for him

Why are we not blitzing and putting pressure on Purdy like we did at the end of the 1st half????? #FinsUp

That one is on Tua. And usually extra accurate when he’s rolling out #FinsUp

Did Wilson falls down on that INT? #FinsUp

If the defense keeps it up, it’s up to Tua to settle down and get it done #FinsUp

Let’s do it!!! #FinsUp

TWITTER VOTING STARTED YESTERDAY. RETWEET TO VOTE FOR THESE MIAMI DOLPHINS PLAYERS TO GO TO THE PRO BOWL: @Tua @cheetah @D1__JW @T_Armstead72 @AI_XLV @HollywoodVon @cwilkins42 @Iamxavienhoward @_kader___ @thomasmorstead @astronaut Conner Williams #ProBowlVote  #FinsUp

Does Parker still play for the Patriots? Haven’t heard his name all night #FinsUp

I was really hoping to see our run game take off today #Finsup

All Dolphins fans should be following @barrycunningham!!!!!

I appreciate all the new followers, and @ian693 for repping the shirt. To celebrate I’m going to giveaway a McLovin McDaniel shirt, to enter: - Follow me - Retweet this post Winner selected before next weeks Dolphins game, good luck! #FinsUp