Exponential View @exponentialview.

Joined July 2007
392 Photos and videos
Azeem Azhar reposted
When even scientists are shocked by extreme weather, the only conclusion to draw: we're in trouble. 🎁🔗 bloomberg.com/graphics/2026-

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Azeem Azhar reposted
The most important sovereign infrastructure in the world is for AI
We let Deepmind get acquired by Google for $600m because we couldn't fund their work yet HS2 cost roughly the same as all Anthropic's funding.
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Azeem Azhar reposted
AI companies are making a lot of money. Apparently the revenues from this wave of technology are growing "roughly three times more rapidly than the mobile or Internet waves."
The GenAI economy has generated $110 billion in sales over the past 12 months. It is growing fast. On an annualized basis, the revenue run rate exceeds $175 billion. These numbers took us several months to construct, and as far as we know, it’s the first bottom-up, deduplicated measure of consumer and enterprise AI spending across the full stack. We are releasing this research today in our first The State of the AI Economy report. intelligence.exponentialview

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all depends on your priors
Again, the index everyone is using to say compute markets are crashing. Full refute: “In fact, rental rates have firmed further around the 1-year term over just the past week (Jun 25 – Jul 2), with multiple providers raising prices. For all the concern about a glut, the rental market is doing the opposite of pricing one in: rates are firming, not softening.”
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Azeem Azhar reposted
The AI economy.
The U.S. stock market is moving back to levels of market cap concentration not seen since the 1960s.
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I suspect unbridled tech boosterism does turn off voters.
What a bright blazing red flag. Mr Burnham is reviewing the Government’s overall artificial intelligence strategy, and an aide said he believed “unfettered tech boosterism” was turning off voters. telegraph.co.uk/politics/202

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Glad they did this. If you have new ideas, you have to wrestle with the models not to pull you back to mid.
The Economist: "Talkie, a model trained only on text from before 1931, thinks God is extremely important and is “very proud to be a citizen of Great Britain”. It is a bigger believer in law and order than any frontier model we tested."
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Azeem Azhar reposted
I am the first to make fun of the European technology aversity, but 26ÂșC is totally fine!
$300/night to sleep in 26°C/79°F in Brussels! đŸ„”đŸ„”đŸ„” Make it make sense
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Azeem Azhar reposted
"In a sample covering more than 21,000 U.S. firms, we find that companies that invest heavily in AI grow headcount 10% over the two years following adoption. Entry-level headcount grows 12%." econlab.substack.com/p/we-ca

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Azeem Azhar reposted
Whoa, Factset said their coding-related token use grew 5x quarter-over-quarter. "Coding agents now author 27% of committed code." "With these efficiency gains, we initiated a ~10% reduction in our tech workforce" $FDS
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Azeem Azhar reposted
Meta is building a cloud business to sell excess AI computing capacity to outside customers essentially turning Meta's $125–$145 billion capex spend into a direct revenue line for the first time (Save this). Meta has been the only major US hyperscaler without a cloud business, Amazon has AWS, Microsoft has Azure, Google has GCP and that missing revenue line has weighed on the stock every single time Zuckerberg raised capex guidance. That objection just disappeared, now look at what the Wells Fargo model is actually telling you. The bottom chart shows Meta's total compute capacity growing from 7.5 GW in 2025 to 21.2 GW by 2028 nearly tripling in three years. The light blue section, AI-focused capacity goes from just 1.5 GW in 2025 to 13.2 GW in 2028, representing the excess compute that is now, as of this morning, a monetizable product instead of a pure cost center. The table at the top prices what that capacity is actually worth. Wells Fargo models $20 billion in revenue per gigawatt at an 85% operating margin meaning just 1 GW of resale generates $17 billion in operating income, $14.6 billion in net income, and $5.69 in EPS accretion, a 16.3% uplift to FY27 consensus from a single gigawatt. Meta is sitting on a path to 13.2 GW of AI-focused capacity by 2028. Even if they monetize a fraction of that externally, the math becomes enormous and the market is only now starting to price it in, which is why the stock is up 7.5% pre-market this morning. The plan reportedly includes selling access to AI models hosted on Meta's infrastructure similar to AWS Bedrock where Meta runs the chips and data centers, hosts models including its own Llama and Muse Spark, and charges developers per token to access them. That is not just a compute play but rather a B2B AI services business that turns Meta from a social media company into an enterprise AI platform with recurring revenue and cloud-level margins. Zuckerberg has been telegraphing this for months At the shareholder meeting in May he said a cloud business was "definitely on the table" and noted that companies approach Meta "almost every week" asking to buy compute at a premium. The demand was always there but today Meta decided to answer it. Meta generated $56.3 billion in revenue in Q1 2026, up 33% year over year, with ad impressions up 19% and 3.56 billion daily active users across its family of apps and that was before a single dollar of cloud revenue. I am as bullish on Meta as I have ever been and the Capex the market has been punishing them for just became the asset. Meta has been a core position in the Milk Road portfolio and today is exactly why. If you want to see every position we're holding, what we're buying next and our entire thesis, come join us just for a dollar!
$META BREAKING: Meta is now building a cloud business to sell excess AI compute, as per Bloomberg. If this is true
then it is exactly what the market has been waiting for. - Justifies the heavy capex spend - Diversifies a line of business outside of advertising - If META can sell compute
they can probably begin selling more B2B agentic services to those same clients using their compute - Compute constraint narrative-driven stocks have RALLIED all year
adding that narrative to $META could be a potential game changer to sentiment around the stock. This is personally a pivot I have been waiting for all year as a shareholder and as annoying as it has been to buy this name (this rip might end up being sold off) this was one of the CORE reasons to continue DCA-ing. Hoping this is true but if Zucks gets into the neocloud game
it could be very exciting. LFG.
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Azeem Azhar reposted
Companies are rapidly changing their minds that artificial intelligence can “do it all” by rehiring employees to propel their businesses forward, as investors fret over the longevity of the ongoing AI boom happening in the financial markets. Automaker Ford is one of the latest companies to reverse course. It is reportedly re-employing hundreds of experienced human engineers to work on quality issues automated systems couldn’t address. Click here to read more: cnb.cx/4eD0oRH
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Its tomorrow here!!!
We’ve received notice that the Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5. We'll begin restoring access tomorrow, and will share an update soon. We’re grateful to our users for their patience, and to everyone who worked with us on redeploying the models.
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Azeem Azhar reposted
AI is scaling at a faster rate than any previous IT wave.
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Azeem Azhar reposted
GOOGLE FACES AI CAPACITY CRUNCH AS DEMAND OUTSTRIPS SUPPLY: REPORT Google is reportedly struggling to keep up with surging demand for its AI services due to limited computing capacity. The supply constraints highlight the intense competition for AI infrastructure, with tech companies racing to expand data centers and secure high-performance chips to support growing enterprise and consumer adoption.
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Azeem Azhar reposted
x.com/i/article/207135784544

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Azeem Azhar reposted
A.I. is vacuuming up so much of our land, talent, semiconductor chips, building materials — and, above all, so much of our money, that it is beginning to crowd out the rest of the economy. nytimes.com/2026/06/29/opini

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Azeem Azhar reposted
The literal index that everyone is citing to say compute demand is getting weak "we don’t agree that compute demand has decreased."
There are some jitters in the market about demand for AI compute partly inspired by our Token Index and partly perhaps due to the decrease in the rental price for the H100 GPU. We too have observed a recent downtick in the H100, we don’t agree that compute demand has decreased.
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Azeem Azhar reposted
Update: After scanning almost 23,000 dissertations, I can now say... it's REALLY bad out there. More than 1-in-5 dissertations uses AI nowadays, much of the time to do all of the writing.
I just found something more indicting than this. I'm writing a paper documenting the rise of AI in PhD dissertations. As you might predict, there's been an explosion in the use of AI to complete PhDs. It's embarrassing: PhDs will increasingly not mean 'experts' on anything.
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Azeem Azhar reposted
The defining purchase decision for the next generation of cars will be the quality of the AI driver. The world's largest automakers are betting that @wayve_ai is their answer. wsj.com/business/autos/wayve

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