co-head of Interceptfund.com @stripe / toddler alignment researcher @raebanay

Joined September 2023
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I joined @Stripe in January to build a new philanthropic initiative with @nanransohoff. Today we’re announcing Intercept, a $500m innovation fund focused on radically reducing the burden of respiratory viruses. I’ve spent the past decade investing in vaccines and drugs for infectious disease, and this is the most exciting thing I’ve ever been a part of. Thrilled to be working with @Stripe, @AnthropicAI, @TheFluLab, @FoundationOAI, @coeff_giving and individuals from Jane Street. We've raised the capital and now it’s time to get to work.
Today we're launching Intercept: a $500M philanthropic initiative to make respiratory infections, like the common cold and flu, a thing of the past. We treat respiratory infections as a minor nuisance, but that’s really not the case. Most of us will spend 5% of our lives (!) sick from these viruses, they kill 1M people a year, cost $600B annually in productivity, and periodically threaten civilization through pandemics. So, if they’re such a big problem, why haven’t we dealt with them yet? Last year we convened ~40 leading scientists, pharma R&D leaders, biotech investors, and regulatory experts to better understand that. We heard two main reasons: (1) First, it’s just technically very challenging: respiratory viruses represent hundreds of distinct, mutating strains across several families. Fortunately, recent breakthroughs make this newly possible. (2) Second is a lack of funding: broad-spectrum solutions have historically been underfunded, in part because they’re not a great fit for most philanthropic or commercial funding (and while COVID generated a burst of activity around preventing and understanding respiratory infections through an influx of new funding, that hasn't been sustained). We think that with enough focus and funding, this might be solvable. Intercept is a $500 million philanthropic initiative that will take advantage of new tools to catalyze the development and deployment of two types of products: broad-spectrum preventatives and air cleaning technologies. This problem is undoubtedly difficult. But it’s more tractable now than it’s ever been. We think we should give it our best shot. We’re enormously grateful to our anchor funders: @stripe, @AnthropicAI, @TheFluLab, @FoundationOAI and individuals from Jane Street. And, I’m very excited to be building this with @incredutility and the rest of the team.
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Awesome paper from @inaganguli @jeffrlin @VitalyMeursault explaining ~40% of the decline in research productivity over time coming from inventors "spreading out" through growing idea space. Generalization of the "picking the low hanging fruit" and "burden of knowledge" explanations.
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Excellent piece. Reading it I felt proud that America is the kind of country that could marshal this complex scientific engineering state capacity feat to defeat the screwworm. And genuinely unsure we could pull off something similarly novel and ambitious today.
The US spent 50 years eradicating screwworm from North and Central America. Over the past 5 years, those efforts have unravelled. This week on Construction Physics, the fall and rise of screwworm. construction-physics.com/p/t…
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Took our five year old to Target for the first time
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My very offline librarian brother in law got one-shotted by @stewartbrand. He’s in the process of stripping his Victorian in New Haven of a thick layer of millennial grey and revealing beautiful solid wood doors and hardware. Repaired his lawn mower and is working on his weed whacker. Pretty cool that he heard about @stripe through @stripepress! cc @tamarawinter
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He’s also an amazing musician (and dad and friend!) share.google/K4IFqxA01Ulk7xZ…
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Many such cases
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IS THE ECONOMIST ALWAYS WRONG? Scandalously, in some circles @TheEconomist has a reputation as a contrarian indicator. This week we fessed up to getting a big call on oil prices from April wrong. Obviously our goal is not perfectly-hedged (and perfectly boring) predictive accuracy: often it is to stimulate, provoke, and challenge. But I did want to test that wider allegation, so I ran a series of LLM scorers across our full leader database since 2000 (7,000 leaders in all.) You can see the results in the chart below: each dot is one of the 1,400 leaders where we identified concrete and falsifiable predictions that were central to the argument. Higher = more accurate, further to the right = more contrarian. We do well, unsurprisingly, when aligned with conventional wisdom. We often do worse when truly out on a limb. But actually, on average, we are a bit likelier to be right than wrong on our somewhat-out-of-consensus calls. All round, a respectable performance. And as @ecurrnomics points out an accompanying leader, there is no shame at all in being beaten by the market: as good free-marketers we believe deeply in the aggregated wisdom of prices. Take a look at my piece here, which includes a canter through our best and worst calls of the last quarter-century: economist.com/interactive/fi…
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Can’t stop thinking about the screwworm elimination story.
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Can’t stop thinking about the screwworm elimination story.
Characteristically awesome post from Brian:
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i regret not learning sooner that beyond painting, david hockney was also an incredible photographer
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2/4 of these are from Maine artists depicting Maine. Maine: still underrated.
What is your favorite painting by an American artist?
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St. Louis Globe-Democrat, Missouri, July 1, 1922
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Characteristically awesome post from Brian:
The US spent 50 years eradicating screwworm from North and Central America. Over the past 5 years, those efforts have unravelled. This week on Construction Physics, the fall and rise of screwworm. construction-physics.com/p/t…
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The US spent 50 years eradicating screwworm from North and Central America. Over the past 5 years, those efforts have unravelled. This week on Construction Physics, the fall and rise of screwworm. construction-physics.com/p/t…
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The @AgainstMalaria donation flow is really quite bad and I churned a few times before finding time to figure it out. Seems like a fairly low lift project for an EA developer / group of developers?
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A delightful Mad Max summer in New York City
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terfenadine was a blockbuster allergy pill until it started stopping people's hearts and got pulled off the market the safe version (fexofenadine / allegra) took pharma years to find (and $6b) i gave an RL loop the dangerous one and 3 hours later it handed me back the safe one. on a m4 pro. neither molecule in training 🧵
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Bridgewater and Thinking Machines just published a blog on training a custom model to replicate expert investor judgment. The task is filtering financial documents and news for relevance. Sounds trivial. Turns out it's not.
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The silliest objection to birthright citizenship is that “many other countries don’t have it.” OK? America is better. I thought the right agreed with that. We have it because the U.S. is exceptional. Next!
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NEW: Anthropic announces it is developing its own preclinical drug programs No specifics provided beyond a focus on neglected diseases "To build the right models, products and tools, we need to live it along with all of you," Eric Kauderer-Abrams, Anthropic life sci head, says
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