6/7⚾️Today’s Top MLB Play 4
🎮TOR@SF
#BlueJays50
⚾️Kevin Gausman u5.5 Ks (-116)
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🎯 Gausman has a playable under case here because the recent strikeout baseline is sitting right around this number, but the median still leans below. He’s averaging 5.7 Ks with a 5-strikeout median over the last 10, and he’s stayed under 5.5 in 6 of those 10. That matters because his normal recent outcome has been landing at 5 or fewer, which cashes this under.
📉 Under in 6/10 last 10
📊 5.7 Ks average
🎯 5-strikeout median vs 5.5 line
📍 Under in 60% of L20
🛡️ What stands out most is that the under results have mostly been stable. Gausman has posted 5, 5, 5, 5, 3, and 4 in his six unders, so even several decent strikeout starts still stayed below this number. The misses came at 8, 8, 7, and 7, which shows the ceiling risk, but he has needed one of the higher-end outcomes in this sample to beat the line.
🎯 The broader profile keeps the under playable. He’s under in 60% of L5, 60% of L20, and 67% on the 2026 sample shown, so the recent and larger samples both lean slightly below 6 Ks. With the median sitting under the line, a normal recent start is enough for this to cash.
✅ Projection lands around 4-5 Ks based on the recent median, hit profile, and game-log distribution. At -116, the under looks playable because 6 strikeouts has been the less common recent result, and this remains playable down to 4.5.
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