Me on my way to my weekend job because I bought Bitcoin last year instead of AI

When you find out that Michael Saylor sold $216,000,000 in bitcoin last week and he was the last person still buying

Ten days ago, Aave's founder turned down $385M from Kraken. Called it a 70% discount. Said no. That read as bravado. It wasn't. ➛ What just went live: Aavenomics 3.0. 100% of protocol revenue GHO, App, Pro, Swaps now routes to automatic, on-chain $AAVE buybacks. No committee. No discretion. No "DAO will decide later." ➛ Why it matters: Most tokens promise value accrual "someday." This is plumbing, not a promise. Revenue in, buyback out, no human in the loop. He turned down a nine-figure exit, then hardcoded a mechanism that pays holders and made sure no future vote can quietly switch it off. ➛ Usage is confirming it: Monad market: $100M deposits in 48 hours. V4: past $250M. Whales: ~$16M in $AAVE accumulated in days. TVL: $13.3B, up 11% this month alone. $AAVE 48% (30d) one of the strongest moves in DeFi this cycle, in a month most of the market spent bleeding. A buyback is only as strong as the revenue behind it. Aave's fees have actually softened the last 30 days route 100% of a shrinking number and the buyback shrinks too. The mechanism doesn't create demand, it converts revenue into it. And Standard Chartered's $3,500 target is the ceiling of the bull case, not the floor. But strip that out and one fact stands: the founder said the market was wrong about Aave's value then wired the protocol to prove it, on-chain, for holders instead of a buyer. The buyer offered a discount. He built the premium. Which read do you trust now?

Me on my way to my weekend job because I bought Bitcoin last year instead of AI

Fable 5 probably running locally in about two years. That is the projection in this r/LocalLLaMA chart. It tracks how long it takes for cloud-frontier capability to become broadly comparable in laptop-runnable open-weight models. The observed average lag: ~24.8 months. GPT-3-class capability: 37 months. GPT-3.5-class: 17 months. GPT-4-class: ~24 months. The projection puts Fable / Mythos 5-class capability on high-end consumer hardware around July 2028.

🚨 THIS IS WHERE I BUY BITCOIN. The cycle is simple once you see it. Accumulation. Distribution. Re-accumulation. Distribution. Then accumulation again. We just came out of distribution and into the third accumulation zone. This is the phase where strong hands quietly load up while everyone else is scared.

GPT 5.6 drops this week. Here is what happens next: OpenAI is hyping it as a LEAP. → Fewer guardrails than Fable 5 → Better at backend → Usage limits you can actually live with If it delivers, Anthropic is cornered. They will have NO choice but to put Fable 5 back in subscriptions. GPT 5.6 does not just have to beat Fable 5. Its existence is what brings Fable 5 back. The next 7 days decide the entire AI market.

I find it hard for any bears to defend against this humanoid bull case.

Last wk despite S&P/Nasdaq 1.8%/2.1%, the “speed bump” continued in AI related names led by the semi index -4.4% due to: 1) fear of $AAPL being allowed to buy Chinese memory, 2) $META potentially having excess capacity to sell in their own public cloud offering. As I posted last week, seasonality is historically very favorable from the last 3 trading days of June through the first nine trading days of July during which the S&P/Nasdaq have advanced 1.6%/2.5% and been up 78% of the time since 1985. The S&P/Nasdaq is up 1.7%/1.9% during the first 5 trading days of this stretch already. For comparison, the average 12 day rolling return is 0.5%/0.6% and is up 61% of the time since then so this stretch is much better than normal. My plan is to remain bullish on the diversified market during this seasonally favorable period until big cap earnings begin in late July due to the concerns I outlined on June 20th around: 1) Token minimization 2) Competitive low cost open-sourced LLM models 3) Rising semiconductor cost impact on Q3 guidance At a macro level, oil declined 1% last week, Fed Chair Warsh made comments on inflation expectations having come down in recent weeks and June non-farm payrolls on Thursday came in well below expectations. This should have lowered concerns on the Fed having to potentially raise rates but bond yields increased by 4-12 bps across the 2 to 30 year yield curve. This is something to watch. In terms of company specific AI news, META rallied 5.9% last week on the prospects of an AI capex overbuild potentially not being as bad for them if they can sell excess capacity. However, this will not be taken well if this emboldens Meta to actually spend more than they would have otherwise hurting their cash flow. SoftBank also announced their entry into the neocloud market last week. The list keeps growing and we will see how many the market can support. In the short-term, I believe Apple will be allowed to buy some memory from China given semiconductor price increases are severe enough to impact inflation going into the US mid-term elections. Tim Cook is arguably the most politically adept CEO and Apple received tariff waivers in both President Trump’s first and second terms. Given the currently ramping $NVDA Vera Rubin platform takes at a minimum over 3x more memory than a Blackwell platform, I would take advantage of further price declines in memory stocks on an Apple exemption. While I do not believe we have seen THE TOP but are just in the process of a speedbump, we saw a 40% drawdown in the SOX that started mid last year and a drawdown of 16% earlier this year. The SOX Index is down just 14% from its recent highs on June 22nd with the SOX Index up 399% since the end of 2022 and up 78% ytd. Looking back to the internet infrastructure buildout, the semiconductor index had a drawdown of 52% starting in September of 1995 and 53% starting in August of 1997. Both felt like THE TOP in the internet infrastructure buildout but the SOX Index advanced 851% from 12/31/1994 through 3/10/2000 despite this. Best of luck in the week ahead and I hope everyone enjoyed a great 4th of July. I am still recovering from protein overload…but it was so worth it!

The biggest crypto bull market you’ve ever seen is literally starting any day now. Don’t say you weren’t warned

Kelper upgrades $XFAB to "Buy" citing: - Melexis demand strengthening “week-after-week, day-after-day” (their lead customer). - AI giving XFAB a structural growth leg with SiC, GaN, and photonics offsetting auto cyclicality. - Scarce Western speciality foundries like $SILEX commanding higher multiples. "X-Fab remains the cheapest specialty foundry peer on every multiple, trading at 4.8x 2027 EV/EBITDA versus a peer median of 14.5x" I treat this as good signal for the core fundamentals improving like auto players. But in terms of unpriced long term growth vectors, I'm personally looking at XFAB from a different angle in terms of photonics growth with photonixfab. Given $NVDA as a potential key driver. But it's hard for traditional firms to price these types of active developments into valuation models until there's volume contracts.

⚠️Hedge funds are DUMPING Asian stocks: Hedge funds sold Asian equities at the 2nd-fastest pace in June in at least 5 years, only below March. Japan led the outflows, posting the largest monthly outflow on record. South Korea followed, reversing all of its year-to-date inflows, with net flows falling from a peak of 5% of Asia's net market value in early June to roughly flat. Is the semiconductor trade in South Korea coming to an end?

If I was a recent EE graduate I would probably go into power. I think the smartest career move you can do right now is do 2-3 years and a big data center power company like Eaton, Schneider Electric, or Flex learn the problem space and what customers want and start your own company. It isn’t as sexy as “AI” or “chip design” but we probably get more value out of new power architectures than chip design at this point.

The US stock market has never been more dominant: US stock market capitalization is up to a record ~$81 trillion, now accounting for ~48% of global market cap. This exceeds the world's 2nd largest stock market, China, at $17 trillion, by 375%. The US stock market is now twice as large as that of China, Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan combined. It is also larger than the next 18 stock markets combined. The Magnificent 7 stocks alone are now larger than China's market value. The current scale of the US stock market is unprecedented.