J-Cal: Nvidia is taking the gloves off with its open source model. They will own the whole stack. “You will not be able to tell the difference between Jensen Huang's open source LLM and Claude for 95% of your searches, I guarantee you. Now, why has Nvidia and Jensen downplayed their open source model until this moment? Why would he do that? Why would he never bring it up in the All-In interview, never bring it up? Because his top customers (OpenAI, Anthropic, etc.) were very concerned, from what I understand, about the fact that Nvidia had made so much progress on their open source model. But suddenly, after OpenAI announced their Jalapeno chips, after Anthropic started making chips, after AMD did successful projects with both of these companies, after Elon said he's going to do his own fab, Nvidia's taking the gloves off. They are going to own the whole stack. You get the hardware from them, and you're going to get a model that's competitive with OpenAI's for free.”

Friedberg’s Ideal Immigration Test: Worker or Welfare? (Or Makers vs Takers) “I'm all about discerning immigration, not on the lines of some cultural definition, but really around that simple framing of are you going to get social support services or are you going to work? Going back to my makers vs takers point, if the primary motivation for an individual to come to this country is to be given benefits, to be given payments, to be given social services, to be given support, I think that that person should be denied immigration. If the primary motivation for the individual to come to the United States is to work to progress themselves, to become a maker, to create things, to work in such a way that they can generate income, save capital, buy things, advance their family's position because they are denied those rights due to the tyranny of the place that they're coming from, then they should be granted immigration status to come to this country and contribute. Because at the end of the day, what people may not like to hear, which is the truth, is that every single one of those people is actually net positive in growing our economy. And everyone thinks it's a zero-sum game with respect to jobs in the United States, and we shouldn't let people into this country that create jobs. But the fundamental truth is that anyone that is productive, meaning they create more value than they take in, grows the economy and more jobs get created, and overall, we all benefit from having those individuals here in this country. And by the way, if you are going to work, you are going to culturally assimilate, because that is what the United States is based on, which is productivity, work hard, create things, and have individual agency, have the ability to progress yourself in this world, in this society. And if you take advantage of that opportunity, you're going to love the American ideals that this country was founded upon.”

J-Cal’s advice to founders: “If you partner with OpenAI or Anthropic, they will slit your throat and take your business wholesale. Don't trust them. Use your own models.” “There is no free pizza. There's no free beer. When somebody like Sam Altman comes to you and says, ‘Here's some free tokens,’ your alarm should go off. If you follow the Microsoft example, Lotus 1-2-3 and Word Perfect were their partners. They were replaced with Excel. They were replaced, obviously, with Microsoft Word. You don't even know those other two. That's exactly what OpenAI has to do, and they have no choice but to do that now because they have a trillion-dollar market cap. They must win the application layer. And Sam Altman went to Y Combinator and he said, ‘We'll give you $2 million worth of free tokens.’ And I came out and I said, ‘Listen, this is nothing personal against Sam. Sam's a very aggressive deal maker and he wants to get access to those startups because he knows, having run Y Combinator, that if he can get their innovations, those founders' latest thoughts about what's around the corner, he can incorporate them into the platform.’ Zuckerberg did the same thing. He said, ‘Hey, I'm going to give people a bunch of access, going to give them money. Come to the Facebook platform.’ Nobody who went to bed with Microsoft in the '80s, Facebook in the 2000s, or Sam Altman now in the 2020s did not wake up with their throat slit. This is a message to founders. If you partner with any of these people, they will slit your throat and take your business wholesale. There is nothing to discuss here. Don't trust them. Use your own models.”

FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND POD! 🚨 Besties are BACK! -- AI Sovereignty Wars -- Palantir-Nvidia Deal -- Alex Karp's CNBC "Crash Out" -- Fable 5 Restrictions Lifted -- SCOTUS Birthright Ruling -- Newsom’s CA Budget Lie -- Could California break apart the Union? (0:00) Bestie intros: Happy Fourth of July! (0:21) Palantir-Nvidia open source deal, Alex Karp's CNBC "Crash Out" (33:52) Update on the AI jobs debate (50:24) Anthropic's Fable 5 available after export restrictions lifted (59:06) SCOTUS upholds birthright citizenship, striking Trump's EO (1:21:30) Newsom's "balanced budget" and how California's dire fiscal situation could break apart the Union

BREAKING: BAIT (Besties All-In Tequila) has won a gold medal at the World Spirits Competition

Thomas Laffont on how Coatue values SpaceX: “The quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more they launch.” “The number one driver correlated to the valuation of SpaceX is cadence of launches, which intuitively makes sense. If your business is the launch business, the more you launch, the higher your value should be. So I think we see that in the data. But there's another fundamentally different ratio that I want to point you to, which is, what if we took the valuation, we divided it by the number of launches, what would that look like? Well, you can see it was kind of in a fixed range for a while, and then it really started to move up. And we believe that markets are rational, and so we started thinking, well, why is it that the market is valuing SpaceX higher on a per launch basis when it's launching more than when it was just starting out? And my fundamental view, and we'll kind of call this our Coatue framework, is that the quality of SpaceX's business model increases the more you launch. So in phase one, which we call pre-constellation, you're just trying your rockets. And we know rockets are hard, and maybe you have a few government customers, and that's a one-time revenue business, and it's unpredictable. Then you get into your initial ramp, and now you might have one constellation. So why is a constellation important? Well, it's an end market and it's a recurring revenue business. The more satellites you put up, the more subscribers you have, the more revenue, etc. Now you can move from ramp into scale. Now you don't just have one constellation, you have multiple constellations. So now you move into being a scaled business, which ultimately becomes a platform. And we know how valuable these platforms are in this technology age. And platform means not only do you have many more customers in your core business, but you also have new businesses. It could be space datacenters, it could be the optionality of the Moon and Mars, and other space applications.” @elonmusk @SpaceX $SPCX --------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners for making this possible! EY (@EYnews) - Great tech starts with a big idea. From startup to scale, EY helps tech founders get financials right early so they can focus on what’s next. ey.com/en_us/tech-sector/tec… NYSE (@NYSE) - Thank you to our partner, the New York Stock Exchange - a modern marketplace and exchange for building the future. It all happens at the NYSE. nyse.com

David Sacks: The DSA is taking over the Democratic Party, here are their radical policy goals “They actually say they want to abolish the Senate. They want to abolish the carceral state, that means basically police forces and prisons. They want to abolish ICE and grant amnesty for all, they do not support any deportations whatsoever. They want to replace the President and Supreme Court with an executive and judiciary that is chosen by and subordinate to Congress. So this would be a total makeover of our constitutional system. They want public ownership of major corporations. They want to defund the Department of War. This is a very radical organization, and you would laugh at a lot of these types of proposals, but you can't really laugh at it anymore because these guys are taking over the Democratic Party. They do not actually see the traditional establishment wing of the Democratic Party as an ally. They see it as an obstacle. A DSA co-chair said, ‘We're using the Democratic Party as a ballot access vehicle, not because we share its goals. We build our own organization, get elected under the Democratic label, caucus with Democrats when it's useful, and push our own agenda from the inside. We see the Democratic establishment as an obstacle, not a home.’ So the DSA is coming for the Democratic Party. It controls the base now, it's where all the energy is. I think this takeover will continue.”

Obviously I’m partial to Copal, but holy cow, the Besties All-In tequila is the most beautiful presentation and bottle combo I’ve ever seen. Yes, those are real lights. Huge thanks to @DavidSacks for the birthday gift! (Side by side taste test this weekend…)

NATE SILVER JOINS THE ALL-IN INTERVIEW! @NateSilver538 — statistician, gambler, Silver Bulletin Substacker — joins @Jason @friedberg for an hour on data, elections & what's coming -- The LA election breakdown: late mail-in ballot surge, ballot harvesting, and what the stats actually show -- Partisanship is political gravity: 43 states already decided for 2028 — not because of rigging -- Democrats' 3 factions: The Left, the Abundance Libs, and Newsom's Resistance Libs -- Gavin Newsom's 2028 freefall: 25% → 15% in primary polls; Ossoff rising -- Why Nate's 2028 sleeper is AOC -- Capitalism vs. socialism: the generational divide, what the data says, and why the cut point is age 40 more! (0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod! (10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India (25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base (34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems (45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed (50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard (55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC ----------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners! @NorthwestAgent @PLAUDAI Starting a business? Northwest Registered Agent gives you everything you need to build a complete Business Identity including free tools and built-in privacy. Get more at northwestregisteredagent.com… If your work depends on conversations — meetings, deal flow, interviews, customer calls — Plaud helps you capture and organize everything with highly accurate AI-generated notes that are not just simple summaries, but also highlight pain points, key decisions, next steps, and customizable summary templates. Check out Plaud at Plaud.ai/allin and use code ALLIN for up to 20% off! Which is also available on Amazon: amzn.to/43URLff (Code: ALLIN20X)

Gavin Baker: “I think Anthropic is worth $3 trillion today.” Gavin laid out the case on the most recent All-In Podcast: – They will end 2026 with over $100B in revenue – They will likely end 2028 with $200-$300B in revenue – At that scale, Anthropic will be very profitable because compute will be inference-dominated – Anthropic reportedly has 85% gross margins on inference – The market has already absorbed Anthropic’s valuation, it will just shift from private to public @Jason: “I'm sorry, did you say Anthropic is worth $3 trillion?” Gavin: “Yeah, I think that is roughly where it would probably trade as a public company.” Travis Kalanick: “Wow. Oh man. Holy sh*t.” Gavin: “They're going to end this year with well over $100 billion (in revenue). So what's the '28 number? Is it $200 billion? Is it $300 billion?” “It's probably not going to trade at 10 times that number, and it will be very profitable at that scale because it'll be inference-dominated and people are reporting they have 85% gross margins on inference.” “But in terms of the market absorbing this, like the market's already absorbed it. It's just shifting from private to public.” “And so in the scale of global capital markets, these seem like really big numbers, but you're just moving from the private markets to the public markets, which are even bigger.”

Travis Kalanick: The UK's Social Media Ban is About Censoring and Tracking Adults, Not Protecting Kids @travisk: “I think we all agree social media is bad for the kids and for the adults. Too much of that stuff is very bad. It's brain rot for real, and it's going to be worse than cigarettes. It's all the things. But the real point of banning under 16 is so that you can force adults to identify themselves and de-anonymize themselves, so you can set up a full-scale censorship regime, which they're sort of contemplating in the UK. And what censorship is really about is not harmful content, it's about content that the people in power don't want you to see that disagrees with them. If it agreed with them, it's not harmful. It's the stuff that doesn't agree with them. And so what they're doing is they're criminalizing disagreeing with them. And so there's a derivative of this age-based stuff, which is really about the adults, not the kids.”

Gavin Baker: “The DSA’s voting base are downwardly mobile white liberals” @GavinSBaker lays out two reasons the DSA is ascendant in America 1) Large and growing voter bloc of downwardly mobile white liberals from relatively wealthy backgrounds, many overlapping with the NGO machine 2) Zohran Mamdani is a generational politician and the figurehead of the party “The voting base of the DSA are relatively wealthy white liberals who are downwardly mobile. They're losing votes with working class people. They're losing votes with poor people. They're losing votes with Black Americans. They're losing votes with Hispanic Americans. The people that the Democratic Party, I think, for a long time tried, and whether they failed or succeeded, tried to represent and give a voice to, they are not of interest to the DSA. There's a whole class of people who went to an elite school, they grew up in really nice circumstances, and instead of going into industry, they went into this kind of giant NGO non-profit machine, and their outcomes have been very different from people who did productive things for the world. I've said on the show many times, @elonmusk has done more to decarbonize the planet than every activist combined. And I think these NGOs and the fact that the government is increasingly outsourcing a lot of funding to them is a really big part of this problem. And then you can give jobs, $600k a year jobs, running an NGO that does nothing productive to your friends and allies, and it's really organized corruption happening at a massive scale. And I hope that the mainstream Democrats can find a compelling candidate because I think the reason that the DSA is increasingly ascendant is not because of their ideas. I think their ideas appeal to this very narrow subset: Downwardly mobile, rich white people who increasingly maybe live in quasi-genteel poverty because they're not doing productive things, they may be well-intentioned, but they're not doing productive things, and can find a compelling candidate because I think the reason they're ascendant is Zohran Mamdani. I think he is one of the most talented politicians I've ever seen in my lifetime. I think he is a singularly talented politician, and he is the reason that the DSA is ascendant, not their ideas or not dissatisfaction with AI, but it's him.”

POD UP! 🚨 Gavin Baker and Travis Kalanick fill in for Friedberg -- Mamdani's Socialists Sweep NYC -- China Catches Up in AI Coding -- Micron's Blowout Quarter, AI Memory Crunch -- IPO Update: Anthropic $3T!? much more! (0:00) @GavinSBaker and @travisk join the show! (1:05) Mamdani-endorsed socialists sweep congressional primaries in NYC (22:51) Future of the Democratic Party, the Israel issue, social media bans (45:12) China's open-source AI catch up, distillation, OpenAI's new chip (1:01:46) Micron smashes earnings, AI's memory crunch hits Apple and consumer hardware (1:10:17) The math behind distributed compute and datacenters in space (1:27:22) IPO update: Anthropic at $3T, SpaceX float, Cerebras drops after breaking deal price

Ryan Cohen: “Why Does Everyone Want GameStop to Fail?” $GME CEO @ryancohen: “The media is an example. Why is it that you've got a ($EBAY) management team with no skin in the game, they're not builders, they haven't built anything themselves before, they've basically just been employees at major companies, they’ve been overpaid, I don't think they've ever broken out a sweat in their entire lives, why does everyone want them to succeed? But when you have someone that, and by the way, I'm putting $500M of my own money into this transaction, I haven't pulled a penny out of GameStop, and it seems like everyone in the media basically wants us to fail, and wants them to succeed. And you've got a board that's making hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. They don't buy stock with their own money. They end up showing up to a handful of board meetings, and they're making a fortune. You've got a management team that is grossly overpaid, taking zero risk. There's nothing more American than basically risking your own capital. So why does everyone want us to fail? @friedberg: “I do think that the media, in order to give you credibility, they're gonna have to acknowledge that all of their takes on GameStop just being a meme stock were wrong, and that there is actually a business here, and that there is value being created here, and that they missed that, and they got the story completely wrong.” -------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners! Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. AppLovin Ads — 1B daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at applovin.com/ALLIN Nasdaq - Positioned at the nexus of technology and the capital markets, Nasdaq provides premier platforms and services for global capital markets and beyond with unmatched technology, insights and markets expertise. nasdaq.com

GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen: 3 Ways I’d Fix eBay Cohen is currently trying to acquire eBay and merge it with $GME. So far, $EBAY has rejected his $56B offer. He believes eBay is a valuable asset with a ton of potential, but currently being mismanaged. His plan to fix eBay: 1) Cut $2B in costs, increase earnings immediately 2) Expand eBay’s live commerce platform ($400B market, growing fast, eBay Live has potential) 3) Create a liquid marketplace for in-game digital items “There are three areas. One, immediately improving earnings through cutting costs, pulling $2 billion of costs out of the business. And on the operating base of close to five and a half billion of expenses and 2.4 billion spent on sales and marketing for essentially no user growth, there's a lot of money to pull out there. There's two growth vectors that I'm very much interested in. Number one is live commerce. The TAM is like $400 billion. It's growing very quickly in the US, it's very popular in Asia. And eBay has the users, eBay has the brands, they have a platform. But the platform sucks for a lot of different reasons. That's a huge, huge growth opportunity for them to start doing really well in live commerce. The third thing, and this is something that I have not spoken about before publicly, is building a marketplace where you can provide liquidity for in-game digital items. If you look at all of these in-game items, triple A titles, that people are accumulating skins, weapons, essentially, it's what NFTs, people thought they were, but ultimately they had no real utility. In-game items actually have real utility, and no one's doing it. And, and this should already exist, and it's crazy that it doesn't exist.” -------------------------------------- Thanks to our partners! Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. AppLovin Ads — 1B daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at applovin.com/ALLIN Nasdaq - Positioned at the nexus of technology and the capital markets, Nasdaq provides premier platforms and services for global capital markets and beyond with unmatched technology, insights and markets expertise. nasdaq.com

THE ALL-IN INTERVIEW IS BACK! 🚨 @friedberg sits down with @ryancohen to discuss running $GME and his $56B offer to take over $EBAY -- Building and selling $CHWY for $3.35B -- How to compete with $AMZN in e-commerce -- Activist investing and his road to GameStop CEO -- What he sees in eBay: Massive potential, poor execution -- Ryan lays out his three-part vision for eBay more! (0:00) David Friedberg intros GameStop CEO Ryan Cohen! (1:56) Building and selling Chewy for $3.35B, how to compete with Amazon in e-commerce (11:58) Post-Chewy life, activist investing, the road to GameStop CEO, expanding into collectibles (26:39) Why he wants to buy eBay for $56B: Massive potential, poor execution (slow growth, rising expenses, seller relationship failure) (43:58) Ryan's three-part vision for eBay: Cut costs, expand live commerce, create digital in-game collectible marketplace (49:33) Why eBay has rejected the offer, media bias against GameStop ------------------------------------------ Thanks to our partners! Most advertisers have never heard of the platform with an $11B annual run rate in ad spend. AppLovin Ads — 1B daily active users, full-screen video ads watched for a median of 35 seconds, and businesses are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day on it. Advertiser access is in closed beta. The window is open at applovin.com/ALLIN Nasdaq - Positioned at the nexus of technology and the capital markets, Nasdaq provides premier platforms and services for global capital markets and beyond with unmatched technology, insights and markets expertise. nasdaq.com

Chamath: Frontier AI Leaders “Created a Total F*cking Mess” Short-sighted fearmongering and immaturity from frontier AI leaders has created deep mistrust, threatening AI’s potential as an open engine of economic mobility. That mistrust gives hyperscalers the chance to position themselves as trusted gatekeepers, using KYC, audit trails, and compliance infrastructure to turn AI into an oligopoly. @chamath on the All-In Pod: “I think the leaders of the frontier labs leave a lot to be desired. I think what we're seeing is a consistent pattern of evasiveness and immaturity, and I think that does a huge disservice to the entire movement of AI. The key to a vibrant life is rooted in economic mobility, and I think AI is the grand leveler. It is the thing that can enable everyone to have unique amounts of economic mobility because they are unencumbered to figure out what their upper bound is. And against that backdrop, we have to live in this constant doomerism, hype cycle, naivety, and I think it holds us back. How does it hold us back? Tactically, number one, it creates mistrust. I think that Silicon Valley was already decaying in the prestige that it held in American society. We built important things. Then we veered away from that, and we started building less important things. And now we're at a point where we've potentially started to rebuild important things again, but we have this veneer of negativity and mistrust that are created in large part because we just cannot get our sh*t together. And the leaders of the frontier labs are public enemy number one. Number two, I think what it creates, which I think is bad, but what it creates is an incredible opportunity for the hyperscalers. And the very simple opportunity is to convince governments all around the world, not just America, that they should be the gatekeeper. A: You can't trust these guys. B: These models are all over the place. C: Let us be the ones that provision them to the world. We will wrap it in KYC. I've been now talking about KYC for a while, right? Who are these customers? Do they have identification? Why are they allowed to run these models? What are they prompting? Let's keep them so that there's an audit trail. All of these things are going to become issues. The Frontier Lab folks made it an issue because of how they've handled all of this up until now. And what does that create? Now that creates an oligopoly for AI, the most powerful economically leveling instrument we've ever seen in the hands of maybe a handful of hyperscalers, who by the way, would make an incredibly compelling argument, and they would be right. And the only counterfactual to it would be, ‘Well, trust us, guys, it should actually be much more open and in a far more distributed environment.’ Can you imagine the cost and the complexity if you ask the neoscaler to build the same robust KYC or the same VPC infrastructure that Amazon and Microsoft and Google have spent decades investing trillions of dollars in? It's an impossibility, Jason. So you can take all of those datacenters off the map. You can take all of the neoscaler market off the map. All of this was preventable. So instead of a diverse, robust, open ecosystem giving a tool that is the fundamental unlock for humans, we are now going to debate gatekeeping and duopoly versus oligopoly. They have created a total f*cking mess, and it's a shame.”

Chamath’s Liquidity takeaways and reflections: The state of private and public markets is changing. In recent decades, companies have stayed private longer while competitive advantage deepens with scale. Now, some of the most valuable private companies in the world are preparing to go public at unprecedented valuations just a few years after being founded. A historic liquidity wave is arriving as SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic prepare to go public and lockups expire. These three companies alone are projected to exceed the entire prior decade of venture exits combined. That capital will go somewhere, and right now the focus is on the physical substrate of AI. Power, memory, copper, and specialized silicon are the current key components. The AI model layer itself is competitive, and the frontier labs are searching for profit pools in application layers. Six themes carried across the room. 1/ The liquidity wave & the barbell 2/ AI is a power problem 3/ Models commoditize, compute doesn't 4/ Public vs. private trends are shifting 5/ Can the US build a moat China can't cross? 6/ One scarce edge is human judgment Full breakdown of each theme, along with Chamath's takeaways from each speaker, here: liquidity.socialcapital.com