It has been three very intense days at the IFA Conference in Monaco.
First of all, big kudos to IFA for putting together another excellent conference in hot and sunny Monaco. Despite some taxi issues, I believe participants enjoyed the venue. It was convenient, compact, and the meeting rooms were all located close to each other, which made the whole event very efficient.
For me, the main topic of this conference was not urea, or nitrogen in general, but sulphur.
The supply disruption continues, and even with the Strait of Hormuz reopening, most participants agreed that returning to normal will take several months - if not longer.
On top of that, sulphur consumers in the fertiliser industry are facing competition from the metallurgical sector, as well as from producers of technical-grade DAP and MAP, who are able to pay much higher prices for finished products and, consequently, for sulphur itself.
As for China, there is a strong chance that we will not see any meaningful Chinese phosphate exports before the end of the year.
In general, I think many phosphate consumers around the world will try to switch - or have already switched - to relatively cheaper alternatives for P₂O₅ and sulphur, such as TSP and SSP in Brazil, and possibly SSP in Europe as well. Time will tell.
My personal view is that the situation in the Gulf remains very fragile. This is not just an equation between two countries, namely the US and Iran. Israel is also part of it, and it is clearly not fully comfortable with the current ceasefire and ongoing peace talks.
Safe travels, everyone. See you next year.
I think I may have an idea where the next one will be - but that is for IFA to announce officially.
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