Within the Commute: listen on @apple carplay @android auto. on 99.1 FM WDC, 1130 AM NYC and 92.9 FM Boston. and, @SIRIUSXM 121. Then, watch on @YouTube. SUBSCRIBE to Bloomberg Podcasts. 7 to 10 a.m. Economics, Finance, Investment, International Relations. Bloomberg Surveillance. @YouTube Podcasts, @Apple Podcasts and @SpotifyPodcasts. youtube.com/watch?v=f39oHo6v…

Jollibee is a beloved Filipino institution across Canada. So it was the perfect place for President Marcos Jr. and I to visit in Vancouver last week, as we celebrated the long-standing friendship between our countries.

Not a single repeat question! The financial advantage Republicans have going into the mid-terms is exponential and Dems are fighting in red state territory. I still think the generic data points clearly to a Dem win in the House, but the Senate has a much harder path. Notably though, the Progressives who are winning and ousting moderate incumbents are all on the House side - not the Senate. There we see moderates like @RoyCooperNC or @MaryPeltola hauling in sizeable fundraising in what should otherwise be red territory. Thanks for all the great questions @tomkeene and @ptsweeney of @BloombergRadio as always. I'm going back to bed!

Be careful picking a fight with July: the month has seen an avg return of 1.4% since '93 and produces positive returns 2/3 of the time. Also, looking back at prior instances when the index was up by 10% the halfway point, SPX went on to finish year higher EVERY time, with avg gain of 28% via @psarofagis

@tomkeene Cumby IPO, ticker $CMBY

first read of the week: MAX HASTINGS BLOOMBERG OPINION thx @ndtv ndtv.com/opinion/opinion-ame… consider hastings: Vietnam.amazon.com/Vietnam-Tragedy-1…

…all the good questions will be asked by the time you get to me!

Hilarious

John Quincy Adams, when he discovered that both his father, John Adams, and Thomas Jefferson had died on the 50th anniversary of independence on July 4, 1826, he believed it to be a palpable mark of divine grace. “The time, the manner, the coincidence with the decease of Jefferson, are visible and palpable marks of divine favour, for which I would humble myself in grateful and silent adoration before the Ruler of the Universe—For myself all that I dare to ask is that I may live the remnant of my days in a manner worthy of him.”

‘Contracts are enforced. Courts are independent, most of the time. Accounting standards, whatever their flaws, are at least consistent and disclosed.’ @LizAnnSonders ft.com/content/5ee80a17-7277…

‘…at times with recurring bouts of nativism or of fear on the part of the US, but confidence repeatedly returned, and with it some degree of leadership for openness.’ on ‘nationalistic nostalgia’ Big Bob: "It seems to me that the first thing we have to do is to separate out the things that are pleasant from the things that are unpleasant." Pleasantville.

the first weekend read.

tweet of the day

it is a sequence and a cumulative set of stimuli. As, Harper, Schwarber, Turner…

tweet of the day. The var, the fake injury, the inability to shoot from the slot. baffled by the silliness. question: does soccer need a clock to lessen the midfield chess?

LOOK: Pres. Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney visit a popular Filipino fast-food restaurant chain in Vancouver. | via @HarleneDelgado

YOUR ENGLISH TEACHER AND YOUR GYM TEACHER ARE REPORTEDLY MARRIED 🥹 Ikinasal na ang American singer-songwriter na si Taylor Swift sa kanyang fiancé at football tight end na si Travis Kelce, ayon sa report ng Page Six ng New York Post. Wala pang kumpirmasyon mula sa couple pero nangyari umano ito sa harap ng maliit na grupo. Patuloy naman daw ang mga paghahanda para sa isang event sa Madison Square Garden. | via Reuters

J.P. Morgan Chief Global Economist Bruce Kasman discusses the global economic outlook, inflation, a recoupling labor market, and why a technology-led business expansion could support global growth. He also explains why stubborn inflation may lead to a shallow but tightening cycle and what that could mean for markets. For more insights: spr.ly/6014BDN4JM

Bridgewater just published numbers that should make every frontier lab nervous. The world's largest hedge fund tested Gemini, Claude, and GPT on six document filtering tasks its investors do every day. Naive prompts scored around 50%. A coin flip. Expert-written prompts pushed accuracy to 78%. Investors needed 80% before they'd trust the system in their workflow, and no frontier model cleared it. GPT 5.4 cost 43% more than 5.2 and was barely more accurate. So they fine-tuned Qwen3-235B on Tinker instead. 84.7% accuracy. 29.8% fewer mistakes than the best frontier model. At 1/14th the inference cost. The smartest part is buried in the middle of the paper. Their vendor-labeled training data was riddled with wrong labels, and expert labeling costs too much to run on everything. Their fix: train a model on the noisy dataset, then run it back over its own training data. Any example the model disagreed with got routed to senior investors, because either the example was genuinely hard or the label was wrong. The model's own confusion became a detector for bad labels. Prompting hit a ceiling for a structural reason. A prompt captures only the judgment an expert can put into words. Twenty years of taste about which central bank memo actually signals a rate move doesn't compress into instructions. It transfers through labeled examples. Every institution sitting on decades of expert decisions just learned that those archives can train a model that beats the frontier at their specific job. The alpha was in the filing cabinet the whole time.

BREAKING: “And More” Agencies Already Feeling Like Underdogs Having Not Made The Cut In T-Mobile Press Release

will do that. thank you.