The Iran war effectively destroyed every nation outside of the Americas as a rival to the U.S.
Iran is broken as a contender for power; they can't even sell their oil. Tankers are ignoring the IRGC and transiting via Omani territorial waters, protected by the U.S. Navy. Iran is too cowardly to commit acts of war off the Omani coast. Oman has also made it clear that they will never support Iran's delusional plan to toll the Strait.
Iran can't get a single tanker to dock at its ports. Their economy is in a tailspin. Iranian inflation is approaching pre-Milei Argentine numbers. A famine is a very real possibility; Iran imports half of its food and no one is willing to sell to a pirate state that keeps shooting at commercial traffic.
Iran has failed to uphold its end of the MOU and thus hasn't received a single dollar in unfrozen funds or Gulf development aid. The MOU was a test to see if they could behave rationally when their military leverage is gone and their economic leverage is fast eroding. They failed.
Demand destruction has been concentrated almost entirely in Europe and Asia. China and India are crippled. The Chinese will be faced with the choice of switching off their data centers, stalling "development" of the AI they stole from xAI and Anthropic, or forcing starving Chinese citizens to eat babies.
Europe, already deindustrializing thanks to the Ukraine war, has been dealt a death blow. They won't recover for decades, possibly generations. Denmark might end up selling Greenland to us to stave off a depression.
The war has forced countries reliant on Strait oil flows to accelerate their plan Bs in the same way that the 70s oil embargo forced the U.S. to begin oil extraction in Alaska. The UAE will complete the new Gulf of Oman pipeline, rendering the Strait obsolete, much like how the discovery of the Americas allowed Europe to circumvent the Middle East when trading with China, turning the region into an irrelevant backwater.
The country that benefited the most from the war was America. Iran has been severed from the global economy and even from BRICS. Buyers now have to go to America or her allies. Refineries in Texas and Louisiana are booming thanks to Venezuela realigning with the U.S. and sending its crude to our shores. China will have to do what we say if they want energy.
Energy prices in the U.S. are now so substantially lower than in Europe and Asia that offshoring and outsourcing are no longer financially prudent. Turns out that the way for manufacturing to compete with cheap labor countries like India is to make the cheap labor expensive. Jobs and investment are coming back to America, the only sure bet. With demand destruction creating an oil glut, Americans will be enjoying $2.50/gallon gas or lower by next year while the rest of the world starves.
The Iran war has even crippled Russia. A combination of demand destruction and Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries has sparked off an energy crisis there. We might actually see the Mongols driven out of Donbass and total Ukrainian victory.
In one stroke, Trump cemented American dominance over the world. Iran, China, India, Europe, Russia, Africa...all crushed. He pressed the "fix everything" button and all it took was paying 50 cents more at the pump for a couple of months. I'd say that was more than worth it.
The American Empire rises.
THE EIA EXPECTS GLOBAL OIL SUPPLY TO OUTPACE DEMAND THROUGH 2027, FORECASTING HIGHER INVENTORIES AND LOWER PRICES, WITH BRENT AVERAGING ABOUT $57.69/BBL IN 2026 AND AROUND $53/BBL IN 2027.
