i go live at 230p est. working on @counterpartytv | @phantom @polymarket

Joined August 2021
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THE JACK SCHWAGER INTERVIEW. AUTHOR OF THE MARKET WIZARDS SERIES. TOMORROW LIVE ON STREAM. 5PM EST
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threadguy reposted
If you’re in AI pivot to crypto
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(rant) why most gamblers will never trade, where the next generation of risk takers will come from and how to find edge.
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update
if the government really wants to give the public upside in ai and stop future protesting they should acquire a stake in the major labs (openai, anthropic, spacex, perplexity) and distribute supply via trump accounts that can’t be sold for 18 years. essentially the same as the government buying and never selling. the public makes money. anti ai rhetoric gets quiet. who says no
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> 50% is fucking nuts lol
BREAKING: U.S. government projected to take an equity stake in OpenAI. 57% chance.
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starting to feel like leopold fat fingered that 20% shaz buy
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threadguy reposted
*TRUMP: MICRON STOCK WENT UP 9 POINTS TODAY $MU
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nyc is funny bc everyones like it’s so cold i need to leave then a month later everyones like it’s so hot i need to leave
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threadguy reposted
Threadguy got trolled by a viral frozen yogurt spot after waiting in line for over an hour "I went to this frozen yogurt place yesterday. The few times I've walked past it, there's a line all the way down the block. Apparently, it's VC-backed and private equity is involved, and it's the only yogurt you can eat if you're on peptides, something ridiculous like that" "Finally we get in, and I'm like, bro, I've been in this place 100 times. It's just like every other frozen yogurt place. I asked the girl I was with what the hype is about, and she's like, 'I don't know, everyone else just goes here'" "The only art in this restaurant is a picture of the line, that's it. I think half of the line was paid actors"
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threadguy reposted
Threadguy says 99% of people sports betting are doing it purely for the entertainment and won't convert to traders or investors “I used to have this take that sports bettors could become traders. I actually think this is not true, most people are not betting on sports to build a model and find some profitable line. Most people are just betting to have fun." "The vast majority of sports betting volume is pure entertainment, These people do not want to make money, they will never buy our stocks or our coins.”
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threadguy reposted
58% of Fortune 500 ceos are over 6 foot. The United States average over 6 foot is 15%. Height is the trait with the single most direct correlation to success Threadguy says it is worth sacrificing your long-term health to live an enjoyable life rather than being healthy and under 6 foot  Looksmaxing is idea that physical features can change real world outcomes, and the data agrees. We’re starting to see looksmaxing shed its reputation as a fringe concept and see real mainstream adoption, even if participants don’t realize it. Whether it’s the rise of GLP1s or parents getting purchasing HGH prescriptions for their children, the trend of biological enhancement looks up only "You could say that height is the single most important factor for success. You would rather sacrifice your long term health to be taller. It's hard to fight the data" "Being tall is a baseline edge in society, it matters. My wife has to be 5'4" at minimum. I grew up with a lot of basketball players that would curse their mom for being like 5'1"
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threadguy reposted
Circle is being left out as the biggest financial institutions in the world launch their own stablecoins. What matters is distribution not issuance. Circle pays Coinbase half its revenue for distribution who now is competing directly with $USDC. "Circle pays Coinbase half its revenue for distribution, and now Coinbase is going to competing with them. Coinbase helped bring USDC to Hyperliquid, Shopify, and its own order books, but it's obvious that once this contract expires, the relationship is going to change." "Circle's only real edge was that it was the only investable stablecoin company. You couldn't buy Tether equity, and Ethena wasn't investable. I love USDC and use it all the time, but now investors have alternatives. Why buy Circle when its moat was distribution all along?"
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threadguy reposted
Strategy is now more like a Bitcoin hedge fund than a passive accumulator. Globally there’s ~10 hedge funds with an AUM above $50B, so there’s an extremely limited amount of money managers even capable of running this much size. Considering Strategy is already in the hole with an unrealized loss of ~$16 billion and has yearly obligations of over $1 billion, plus they're limited to trading a single asset, there’s likely not a single money manager on Earth who could recover this position without suffering major losses. Saylor and his team certainly won’t be the ones to do it. “Michael Saylor basically said he’s going to treat Microstrategy like a hedge fund. Buying lows, selling highs. I think this company is so brutally set up for failure, it’s not even funny. They’re basically a hedge fund but they don’t have the corporate structure of a hedge fund, and they can only trade one asset."
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"etherium" yeah it's so fucking over
US GOVERNMENT RELEASES TRUMP'S FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE SHOWING CRYPTO ASSETS INCLUDING OVER $100M IN BTC AND ETH: FILING
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