June NFP Missed Sharply at Just 57K Against a 110K Forecast, the Weakest Print in Four Months. That Is Exactly the Kind of Data That Usually Sinks the Dollar. DXY Did Not Sink. Here Is Why.
DXY 100.982. Last week's thesis was simple: wave (4) absorbing at 99.1-99.6, wave (5) headed for 103-104.5. That was a forecast. Today, after a labor report that should have hurt the dollar, it looks like a fact holding up in real time.
The data was ugly. June NFP 57K versus a 110K forecast. Weakest in four months, following three straight beats. May revised down from 172K to 129K. April and May combined lost 74K in revisions. Unemployment held at 4.2%. Leisure and hospitality shed 61K jobs, partly a World Cup hangover.
And yet DXY held at 100.982, near the top of last week's reaction zone. No collapse. No panic candle.
The reason is structural. Wave (4) had already finished absorbing in the 99.113-99.618 zone before the NFP print even landed, and price had already cleared it. US real yield sits at 0.27% (US10Y 4.47% minus the actual CPI at 4.2%, not the stale pipeline figure of 2.4%). The Fed's tone remains hawkish since the 17/06 FOMC under Warsh. The dollar stalled. It did not reverse.
The pipeline is still showing US2Y at 3.668%. The actual number is 4.12%. The market is not pricing near-term cuts, even after a weak jobs print.
Wave (5) targets: 101.808 (1.0 extension), 103.957 (1.618 extension), consistent with the broader 103-104.5 target zone. Invalidation: below 97.695.
Today is the real test. ISM Services PMI and a speech from FOMC member Waller will show whether the NFP miss is the start of something or just one month of noise.
The tell: the dollar survived a bad jobs report intact.
Conviction: Medium Bull, trimmed from Medium-High Bull.
#DXY #USD #DollarIndex #NFP #Fed #Warsh #ISMServices #RealYield #ElliottWave #Macro #Forex #FOMC
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