Markets, Macro, AI, Tech. Trying to make the world a better place.

Joined March 2009
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Going forward it’s now just the S&P 5 Lose the 00, it’s cleaner that way.
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I've noticed a consistent uptick towards "AI Psychosis" among some of the most talented and hardworking people I know. In some ways, AI breaks our brains. This week I walk through the specific cognitive biases we must overcome as we learn to channel and harness this wonderful technology.
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Brandon Carl reposted
I put Fable 5/Max to work on my inductive learning [not so] little survey on Inductive Learning and it has significantly improved. I will share it. I will rerun some prompts and research programs on investment topic. They went nowhere on codex 5.5 and CC Opus 4.8. A new world.
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Happy 4th!
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You can be a creator, a consumer and a critic. Only creation is necessary and sufficient to move things forward. It’s your life, and the beauty is in the choosing.
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Constraint breeds creativity.
Tesla is moving to curb its AI costs. The company told staff that it plans to impose a $200 weekly limit on AI spending for employees. Over the past few months, some software engineers at Tesla were consuming thousands of dollars’ worth of tokens each week, according to two people familiar with the usage.
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Remember that CoreWeave’s debt means the Enterprise Value is circa $75bb, much higher than its market cap owing to the high debt load.
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The Battle for AI means one thing: models will get cheaper and smarter. They’ll require much less hardware per unit of intelligence. Whether through fine-tuning or algorithmic innovation, it is coming. There are 6 thousand pound gorillas in the US alone all battling in the same arena. Then you have a litany of highly innovative, fast movers globally: Kimi, S, DeepSeek, Thinking Machines and numerous others.
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Microsoft is assembling an army of technologists who will ostensibly fine-tune results and push for outcomes. The hyperscalers’ goal is clear: to make OpenAI and Anthropic another model in a catalog. — “Customers shouldn’t be locked into a single model any more than they should be locked into a single technology vendor. Microsoft’s platform gives organizations the flexibility to run the right model for each scenario — whether it comes from OpenAI, Anthropic, Microsoft AI, open source or a specialized model tuned for a specific industry — without ceding control to any one of them.” blogs.microsoft.com/blog/202…
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Everything old is new again.
Introducing Devin Security Swarm A more cost effective and accurate way to find security vulnerabilities in complex codebases, based on a new architecture: Agentic MapReduce.
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In aggregate, Meta’s Llama models have seen flat usage growth on OpenRouter. Across the models, on OpenRouter they see circa 15 billion tokens a day. In comparison, DeepSeek V4 Flash sees over 650 billion.
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One note on the Nvidia announcement. They seem to be positioning themselves further up the waterfall, and trying to accelerate payback periods for their investments. This is in exchange for credit support.
Nvidia is looking to expand access to its leading AI hardware by granting token credits to developers in exchange for a share of their future sales bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Leopold and Situational Awareness disclose they’ve bought 19.9% of Sharon AI. Days later, Sharon and Nvidia announce a strategic collaboration. — Sharon AI and Firmus are among the first companies to work with NVIDIA on this new business model.  Sharon AI is deploying up to 40,000 NVIDIA Grace Blackwell GB300 GPUs. “This strategic collaboration with NVIDIA marks a pivotal moment in Sharon AI’s mission to deliver sovereign, large-scale AI compute infrastructure,” said James Manning, cofounder and CEO of Sharon AI.  blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia…
Leopold Aschenbrenner’s Situational Awareness disclosed a 19.9% stake in $SHAZ totaling 5.4M shares.
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Morgan Stanley is out making this exact point: “We don’t believe META has the personnel or software offerings to readily compete [as a hyperscaler]”
I will take the under on Meta becoming a hyper scaler all day long. An AI compute provider, yes. Want to become a hyperscaler? 1. You need geographic coverage throughout the world. 2. In each region you need at least 3 availability zones. Each of these need to be connected and planned for nuclear fallout and other events. 3. Your security protocols and business continuity / disaster recovery must be top notch. 4. You must extend to offering a wide variety of services, from identity management to databases to serverless, etc. It is extreme. 5. You must get an ISV organization up and trained, and enable certifications on your infrastructure. 6. You must build out massive GTM organizations. The list goes on and on and on. This is not happening from the likes of Meta. Your best bet at a new form of this is @cloudflare.
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It’s important to distinguish a few things on Meta’s announcement: 1. Selling excess AI compute doesn’t mean you’re starting a neocloud and intending to build a business around compute reselling. 2. Selling excess AI compute is different than becoming a hyperscaler. That’d be like saying “I have a vault in a secure building so I’ll become a bank.” 3. Selling excess AI compute likely offers higher ROI than Meta’s AI efforts. This is positive for Meta. 4. All else equal, this means higher supply than you previously estimated. This is negative for neoclouds.
$META IS BUILDING A CLOUD BUSINESS TO SELL EXCESS AI COMPUTE
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I will take the under on Meta becoming a hyper scaler all day long. An AI compute provider, yes. Want to become a hyperscaler? 1. You need geographic coverage throughout the world. 2. In each region you need at least 3 availability zones. Each of these need to be connected and planned for nuclear fallout and other events. 3. Your security protocols and business continuity / disaster recovery must be top notch. 4. You must extend to offering a wide variety of services, from identity management to databases to serverless, etc. It is extreme. 5. You must get an ISV organization up and trained, and enable certifications on your infrastructure. 6. You must build out massive GTM organizations. The list goes on and on and on. This is not happening from the likes of Meta. Your best bet at a new form of this is @cloudflare.
This is basically what Amazon did with AWS, before the age of AI. They had all this server capacity and systems to run the largest retail website in the world, and then were like, “let’s scale it to run other businesses’ websites and applications, too.”
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Compute = Inference Training Inference = End Demand x Average Intelligence x Algo Efficiency x Hardware Efficiency Training = # of Players x Spend/Player Fine-Tunes (OOM less) — Most of these variables are highly in flux.
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Compare to 6 months ago: • SpaceX and Meta are selling compute versus accumulating it for themselves • CXMT has entered into the memory game • SK Hynix and others announced major expansion plans • Open weights driving a price war, which will drive cost innovation
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The question is: how many companies bought excess compute with the expectation they could sell to other companies. Then: how many component providers extrapolated per customer demand.
The market reaction of punishing $META because of the increase in CapEx will turn out to be very wrong IMO. In the $META Q325 earnings call, Zuck already explained well that if $META overbuilds their compute infrastructure for internal needs, they can sell it to external parties. We are in one of the biggest compute demand/supply imbalances that seems to be getting worse, not better. $GOOGL GCP CEO Kurian expects demand to be bigger than supply for 10 years. $META's enormous AI compute capabilities will either return ROI in the form of their products (which they are already showing) or/and give great ROI by selling compute to external companies. $META investing in AI data center compute is a big asset, not a cash burn, similar to what metaverse investments were in large. The market is viewing it as a negative, instead of an enormous strategic advantage in a compute-constrained world.
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