some thoughts on the next few months for
@variational_io:
1) i expect the api to go live in the next month or so
-as
@CryptoMadbad pointed out, if the team decides to turn on the api two months before the points program ends, we only have a few more weeks to collect points in current conditions
-in light of progress to date, it makes total sense to build on the current momentum by adding more fuel to the fire (via the api), especially now early retail users have had plenty of time to accumulate (credit:
@shadowofintent3 for highlighting)
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2) the api going live will bring a new wave of activity
-post api you will see a very noticeable spike in all important metrics, notably vol/oi, revenue and therefore the treasury balance.
we simply don't know how big the wave of new trading activity this will bring, but i expect it to be substantial. naturally, accumulating points will become exponentially harder
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3) tge either q4 '26 or q1 '27, but possibly dependent on conditions
i have no extra knowledge here or any strong read tbh, but i think there are two factors that may dictate when we see tge; momentum and conditions.
if come the end of the points program or shortly thereafter all metrics are at aths and the market is not taking a horrendous s***, why wouldn't we see tge?
if, however, the sky is falling markets wise, i can see the team delaying the tge until greener pastures emerge, which could be q1 '27
nb: the bottom line for any project in this space is:
-how good is the product and does it have pmf? see hyperliquid
what's my point? it should not and does not really matter if conditions are poor when the token launches, because i expect to do well long term anyway
it's been noted that the team a) really wants to get the tge right and b) appreciates the value of a good tge, which is precisely what i expect from a team of this calibre
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4) i think var fdv will surprise ppl, in a good way
i don't think ppl really understand a few things about this project:
-how strong the team is (study)
-how big the reach for variational can be
-how many markets they can integrate in one place
-how much revenue they can generate
-how much they value rewarding early users
-how much institutional interest there is (see the raise)
-the suprises they have in store (see max's comments)
i'm not bullish enough
you're definitely not bullish enough
no one is
while the fdv at launch isn't that meaningful (it will fluctuate wildly), i expect it to exceed expectations, particularly long term
predicting a precise figure is pointless - we simply don't know what the next few months has in store for us
but i highly doubt it will be below $1b and could easily launch at $3b
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5) the bid at tge will come from those that missed the boat
i remember the hype tge. many ppl on the tl eager to bid hard which was not something i had seen for a long time. and they were right
they didn't have enough exposure via points, so had to resort to buying the token on launch
this is precisely what i expect to see for the var token
the team will launch at a time when interest is at fever pitch, when it's abundantly clear that variational is going to be a huge player in this space and beyond
don't misunderstand me. i am not saying that it will be the next hyperliquid, but i am saying it will be the first variational
oh, and i didn't even mention variational pro
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rant over. i hope you enjoyed my saturday morning ramblings
gvar
