🌊 A WIN FOR FOSSIL FUELS, A LOSS FOR OUR FUTURE
– not an overstatement, well within the realm of possibility if not probability.
I am so tired of writing these sorts of articles 😩. Surely, we must be getting to a point in time where we are more sensible? I really hope so, but as of June 2026, it appears we are not there yet. What am I on about? Mother Nature is back in court 🌍.
Our Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources has given a thumbs up 👍 to TotalEnergies to start drilling our ocean floors for up to ten ultra-deep-water exploration wells, despite opposition from 18 civil society groups and fishing cooperatives. Minister Barbara Creecy dismissed (back then; now we have Dion George) these very valid objections, claiming that the initial approval was both sound and valid 😡. I find this decision ultra-deeply (excuse the pun) disappointing, and I obviously couldn’t agree less with it if I tried.
The drilling is slated to take place in the Deep Water Orange Basin (DWOB for short), located about 200 kilometers off our west coast, nearing the Namibian marine border. TotalEnergies EP South Africa is at the helm of this venture alongside its fossil fuel partners in crime, Shell and PetroSA 🔍. (And if you don’t think there is crime in this industry, you clearly missed my article “Criminal,” which you can read or listen to here: Criminal).
Concerns regarding this drilling have been highlighted, demonstrated, and discussed with as much energy as activist organizations can muster. I thank The Green Connection, Natural Justice, and the Aukotowa Primary Fishing Cooperative for their efforts 🙏. These future-thinking advocates argue that the Environmental Impact Assessment underestimated the risks of an oil spill, pointing out that blowouts in ultra-deep wells are complex and could cause irreversible damage to marine ecosystems.
Let’s not forget that fishing communities are already facing declining fish stocks due to other issues, and now they are threatened with even more risk to their food security and livelihoods from big business 💔. Approving new fossil fuel projects in 2026 contradicts our constitutional responsibilities and commitments under international climate agreements. It's madness, irresponsible, selfish, and driven by ego and the desire to make bucket loads of money 💰.
Some government data indicates that successful commercial development could generate substantial revenue of between R80 billion and R100 billion. One entity that stands to gain from this is TOSACO, a local consortium linked with the ruling African National Congress, which owns a 40 % stake in this venture (via TotalEnergies), with the French, QatarEnergy, and Sezigyn getting the rest.
In defence of the project, not that one can really have a defence, TotalEnergies and the government claim that our nation must tap into its ocean resources and assert the likelihood of a well blowout is extremely low, estimated at a tiny 0.0143%. This figure is actually less than another statistical probability I found, which ranges from 0.031% to 0.19%. While that percentage is very low, we must remember how quickly things can change. For instance, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global probability of implementing lockdowns was considered near zero. Three months later, it was a 100% certainty 📉.
I would prefer to highlight another statistic: the likelihood of the South African government committing a legal or technical blunder when granting Environmental Authorizations for deep-sea oil drilling is approaching 100%, based on recent historical data. You can verify this, as every major offshore oil and gas exploration permit approved by South Africa's Department of Mineral Resources and Energy has recently been overturned or halted by the judiciary due to government errors and insufficient risk assessments. Our diligent judiciary consistently finds that the government fails to adhere to necessary legal procedures under the National Environmental Management Act. Cases like the Wild Coast Seismic Case involving Shell and the South-West Coast Block 5/6/7 Case with TotalEnergies and Shell illustrate the government’s unlawful actions, including deficiencies in consulting local communities and flawed environmental assessments.
Given the situation, let’s poke the bear a bit and consider the worst-case scenario if things go horribly wrong. Starting with financial and economic concerns, after all, that's where most people want to focus, right? An ultra-deepwater blowout during drilling would release vast amounts of crude oil at alarming rates, tens of thousands of barrels per day, into our ocean! For comparison, the BP Deepwater Horizon disaster had cleanup costs exceeding $65 billion. For South Africa, even a smaller blowout requiring subsea capping stacks, chemical dispersants, and shoreline cleanup could cost between R50 billion and R150 billion. And guess who would end up footing that bill? That’s right, likely South African taxpayers. (Where are Dion or Barbara?)
The local economy along the West Coast relies heavily on traditional fisheries, such as snoek and rock lobster. According to court filings from the Aukotowa Primary Fishing Cooperative, a significant spill could wipe out the income of thousands of near-shore fishers. With limited job alternatives in places like Port Nolloth and Hondeklip Bay, local economies could face total collapse, devastating families who have lived there for generations. What options might they have?
Oil floats, meaning that oil slicks heading towards Saldanha Bay and Cape Town would necessitate the rapid closure of major commercial ports and infrastructure. This could also affect the intake systems for desalination plants and the Koeberg Nuclear Power Station, which could, in turn, impact our power grid stability ⚡.
The most significant damage would be environmental and ecological, total devastation. Our West Coast is part of the highly productive and unique Benguela current system; it is incredibly special and important. Yet we still want to risk it? Independent studies show that an uncontrolled offshore blowout has over a 50% chance of causing mass mortality among coastal wildlife. Can you envision our coast without penguins? The destruction could likely lead to localized extinctions and irreversible harm to critical seabed ecosystems. Let’s not even discuss hydrocarbons accumulating in marine life, which could render our beloved Sunday fish and chips toxic.
Finally, there are geopolitical and transboundary implications. The northern boundary of TotalEnergies' drilling block sits right on the maritime border with sister nation Namibia, and the ocean currents in the Orange Basin could easily transport millions of barrels of oil into Namibian waters. Would Namibia ever forgive us for that? Under international laws like the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) and the High Seas Treaty, South Africa could be held liable. (Has anyone found Barbara or Dion yet?)
What happens now? The Western Cape High Court is currently considering a significant review application made in March 2026, aiming to annul the government's drilling authorization. The judges have reserved their judgment, making this a critical legal case that could have wide-reaching consequences for the future of South Africa's offshore energy landscape. This entire situation is incredibly frustrating for me. Let’s hope that humanity does the right thing!
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