All Eyes Must Stay on Gaza.
The international focus may currently be on diplomacy with Iran and Netanyahu’s expected visit to the White House, but Gaza is likely to return to the center of regional developments much sooner than many expect.
According to a report from Israel's Channel 12, Israeli officials assess that Gaza could return to the center of the security agenda within the next two to three months. The report states that Trump’s Board of Peace may determine that Hamas has violated the agreement. Such a determination could allow Israel to argue that it has the right to resume military operations in areas currently under Hamas's control. This matters because Israel already says it controls around 70 percent of Gaza, while the remaining 30 percent is the space still outside direct Israeli military control. The question now is whether Israel is preparing the political ground to move into that remaining area.
The same report also says that the IDF is preparing contingency plans to issue emergency reserve call up orders, known as Tzav 8, to soldiers due for discharge if the Knesset does not approve an extension of mandatory service. This reflects continuing manpower shortages within the armed forces and suggests that the military is preparing for scenarios that may require additional manpower.
These reports are significant on their own, but they may also indicate where Israeli strategic planning is heading ahead of the elections.
Against this backdrop, Netanyahu is expected to visit Trump at the White House after Trump concludes his NATO related engagements and visit to Turkey.
In my assessment, this meeting is likely to have both diplomatic and domestic political significance. A photograph with Trump at the White House would be a valuable campaign asset for Netanyahu as he seeks to reinforce his image as Israel's principal international statesman ahead of the elections.
At the same time, if diplomatic efforts between the United States and Iran continue to advance, Netanyahu's ability to influence that process may become increasingly limited. In that context, another possible objective of the Washington visit could be to seek American political backing, or at least acquiescence, for a renewed large scale Israeli military campaign in Gaza.
This is why Gaza must remain at the center of attention.
If this assessment proves correct, Gaza may once again become the central arena of both Israeli security policy and domestic electoral politics. The convergence of the Channel 12 report, Netanyahu's expected White House visit, the Iran negotiations, and Israel's electoral timetable deserves close attention in the weeks ahead.
Once again, Gaza may be forced to pay the price of Israeli elections with Palestinian blood.