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Michael MacArthur Bosack @MikeBosack

International Negotiator, Peacebuilder, War-tested Leader・Founder @ParleyPolicy • Special Advisor @YCAPSjapan

Joined October 2013
  • Posts 9,979
  • Following 781
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China's SLBM launch has had my mind going in many directions today, because there are such different angles from which to examine it. Here are just a few...
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(6) Appropriate international responses. - There are 3 different issues the international community needs to address here: -- Notification procedures. China will argue it notified others, but it wasn't in any way that was useful. It was unnecessarily risky and dangerous.
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-- Flight path. If China overflew Korea, Japan, etc., that is problematic and cannot be allowed to establish an unchallenged precedent. -- Capabilities. This is a bigger issue that will require deterrence & arms control efforts.
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How will the Russia-Ukraine War end? Fundamentally, wars end in 5 ways: conquest, formal surrender, de facto surrender, disengagement, or negotiation. Now into the fifth year of Russia’s full-scale invasion, several of those outcomes can already be ruled out. Understanding...
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...which possibilities remain helps explain where the war is heading, and why the next round of negotiations will look very different from the last. Read more in my latest analysis for the Kyiv Post: kyivpost.com/opinion/79373

Opinion: How Will the Russo-Ukrainian War End?

Historically, wars tend to end in five ways. Ukraine has managed to exclude some of less appealing variants due to its stronger position in recent months.

kyivpost.com
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The ICJ ruling? Both sides were wrong. Albania was responsible for the damage--but the UK also violated international law by clearing mines without consent. So what does this mean for France and others who attempt to join the Paris-led "Hormuz coalition?"
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These are points that Tehran will use to argue that it is solely responsible for mine clearance. So no, a minesweeper deployment isn’t as simple as sending a ship to clean up maritime hazards.
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There are complexities that have wider implications, especially as Tehran seeks to assert its authority over the Strait of Hormuz. This will be an issue to watch going forward.
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