India and Pakistan’s Air Battle Is Over. Their Water War Has Begun.
nytimes.com/2025/05/31/world…
War over Water - Indus Water Treaty
Part - 2
Pakistan, despite being financially strained, appears to be preparing for a future conflict with India, centered on water. Its defense budget has risen by 18% this year after a 15% increase last year. In upcoming years, even more development funds are likely to be diverted toward military expansion.
Within the military, Pakistan has reportedly created a dedicated rocket force intended to target Indian infrastructure within a range of 500 km. Potential targets include dams, refineries, railway yards, military airfields, and other strategic assets. Following losses suffered during Operation Sindoor in May 2025, their air force is rebuilding key capabilities. Additional surveillance satellites have also been launched to monitor India. The navy, meanwhile, has strengthened its presence in the Arabian Sea with new submarine assets.
Diplomatically, Pakistan has managed to restore relevance in Washington by positioning itself as a useful intermediary for the U.S. in Middle East. Regardless, Pakistan has regained access to a powerful patron.
The dispute over the six rivers of Punjab appears far from resolved. India’s suspension of the Indus Water Treaty in 2025 marked a major turning point. Pakistan protested vigorously, but international attention remained elsewhere, focused on tariff disputes, conflicts in the Middle East, and broader geopolitical tensions.
For now, water continues to flow normally through the rivers allocated to Pakistan. All rivers flow from India to Pakistan that is a strategic drawback. However, the Chenab River has acquired greater importance. The Salal and Baglihar dams built by India are already operational, while Sawalkote, Pakal Dul, and Ratle dams all built upstream by India
are expected to be completed within the next few years. Though designed for hydroelectric generation, their reservoirs could potentially provide India with water holding control over downstream water flows, during crop time frame. That could spell disaster for Pakistani agriculture.
Any future conflict would emerge mainly over river water holding dams. If Pakistan were to respond militarily, missile strikes against dams, infrastructure, and military facilities in India could be among its opening moves. India would then rely on its missile-defense systems and layered air defenses to blunt the attack.
The conflict could quickly escalate into missile, drone, and ground operations. Land battles would likely focus on strategic communication routes, border sectors, and critical military objectives. India’s objective is all of Pakistani Occupied Kashmir (POK).
Should hostilities intensify, international pressure for a ceasefire would arrive rapidly. Western powers, concerned about escalation between two nuclear-armed states, would almost certainly push for an immediate halt to fighting. India unlikely to stop action like in previous wars. It will push on until the objective of liberating POK has been achieved.
What happens next is anyone’s guess. Military strength and economy are on Indian side. Diplomatically and internationally Pakistan is better placed.
War unlikely to end until Pakistan dumps enmity with India permanently and water sharing is renegotiated. To that Western powers are on Indian side.
(To be continued)….