$IREN earnings are still about 8–9 weeks away, not 5 weeks.
My concern is that $IREN’s energy advantage may not remain a durable moat once power constraints ease. More AI data centers are exploring alternative power solutions such as $BE, and as energy infrastructure and software improve, pricing power could become much more competitive.
I’m also concerned $IREN could fall behind on the Horizon build-out timeline. Meanwhile, management appears focused on announcing new expansion projects without providing shareholders the roadmap, milestones, or execution updates many have been asking for.
If this lack of clarity continues, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the stock trade LOWER before earnings.
Price volatility is one thing. Poor communication is another. Shareholders deserve a clearer roadmap and more transparency on execution instead of repeated build-out announcements.
$IREN Earnings in 5 weeks - The Good and the Bad
📈 The good - from likely to less likely
1. Horizon 1 delivery to $MSFT.
2. 100%+ AI revenue growth QoQ.
3. Reiterated Horizon 1-4 delivery in 2026.
4. Horizon 5-6 deal signed.
5. Updated, increased, guidance for EOY.
6. Concrete plans for first substation in SW1.
📉 The bad - all very likely
1. $520m impairment charges associated with the transition from Bitcoin mining to AI Cloud.
2. Miss on analyst consensus headline revenue, and EPS.
3. A large amount of shares issued, but not enough to close the ATM.
4. Extraordinary amount of share-based compensation, end-of-year bonuses, RSUs, grants, and other expenses associated with attracking and retaining talent, massively inflating SG&A well out of proportions to the realized revenue growth.
5. A complete trainwreck of a hit on the convertible note instruments, realized by the same people that are causing the stock to close at insane low levels later today: the convertible note arbitrage dogs.
6. Retarded analyst questions on the call
7. Various one-offs that make it all look even worse.
8. Amateur hour before, during, and after the earnings call.
9. Desillusion across the board.
10. The red candle of death.
Happy last day of FY2026 everyone.