Three problems with this project:
1. If Russia were really “struggling”, the trio in question wouldn’t be talking about negotiations at all. It would be talking about 1991 borders and delivering a strategic defeat. The premise that Putin might feel cornered and coerced into changing his calculus by the end of the year is not grounded in military, political or economic reality. Russia is capturing Kostiantynivka, as city larger than Pokrovsk, as we speak.
2. The trio is made of uniquely unpopular leaders that don’t represent any consensus regarding this war in their own countries and who will be swept away in next elections. Moscow is likely to talk to their successors, but maybe not to them.
3. Britain. A country that’s involved in this war most directly, but has zero political or economic leverage over Moscow. Likely to remain Russia’s enemy after relations are normalised with EU. Until Farage triumphs at least.
As Russia is increasingly struggling, the E3 meet Zelenskyy today in London to prepare concrete negotiations with Putin.
Russia isn't willing to talk yet, but it may be this summer/fall. And it won't be Merkel or Schröder but probably Merz, Macron and Starmer leading the talks.
