Will Europe Enter the War? ‼️
In light of the rise of right-wing currents raising the slogan "Our Country First" the question arises: will Europe enter the war?
The problem is that the U.S. wants a ground intervention; America doesn't need European aircraft as much as it needs their soldiers and tanks. If Europe enters the war, it will face Iranian missiles and an exhausting conflict that ultimately serves Russia’s interests. Trump tried everything in his power to stop the Russian war so that Europe would stand with him, but Russia had a different perspective.
In my opinion, Europe will categorically refuse, relying on the fact that Iran is a "status quo" power that will not harm them directly in this conflict—especially with U.S. claims of destroying Iran's nuclear capabilities. So, what direct threat would they face?
Historical Context & Current Risks
Past Interventions: Europe’s involvement in U.S. wars against Iraq 🇮🇶 and Libya was possible because those countries lacked the capability to inflict direct damage on Europe. Furthermore, there was no Russian war to drain them back then, and their economies were much more robust than they are now.
The Trump Factor: If Trump exerts maximum economic pressure 🚨 and if European intelligence gains solid data regarding even a small number of Iranian missiles with a 4,000km range, things might change.
The Trade-off: Europe might enter the war by depleting its weapon stockpiles and participating via land and sea. However, the price for this would be losing the Russian front and facing massive economic destruction.
I believe there is a 90% chance that Europe will not enter the war, especially given the continued availability of Russian gas.
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